COVID-19 Pandemic Situation Report
as at 15 October 2023

Actual data from WHO (World Health Organization), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:

World: total deaths

How many fatalities did Covid-19 actually cause? Official WHO data says close to 7 million at the present date. But a recently published WHO study estimates 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period 2020-2021.

Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC and by WHO. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.

World: total infection cases

World: total cases — Situation as of 15 October 2023, World:
   Total infection cases: 771,407,825 or 9.60 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 15,707 or a new infection ratio of 0.20 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 120.
   Death toll: 6,972,152 or 0.90 percent of the infected cases.

Covid-19 Situation by WHO Region
As of 18 October 2023
Region	Nbr	Percent	Nbr	Percent	Nbr
	Total cases		Total deaths		Total vaccine doses per 100 population
Africa	9,553,093	1.2%	175,440	2.5%	56.95
Americas	193,316,004	25.1%	2,969,521	42.6%	208.05
Eastern Mediterranean	23,398,740	3.0%	351,564	5.0%	123.34
Europe	276,563,944	35.9%	2,251,388	32.3%	186.01
South-East Asia	61,206,803	7.9%	806,796	11.6%	165.75
Western Pacific	207,368,477	26.9%	417,430	6.0%	242.4
Global	771,407,825	100.0%	6,972,152	100.0%	173.41
Source : WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard retrieved on 18 October 2023.

Starting from the week of 7 August 2023, the Region of the Americas has stopped sharing the COVID-19 cases and deaths updates, announced the World Health Organization. However, it would be wrong to assume that the Covid scourge has been terminated. In fact, Covid-19 hospitalizations in the USA are rising, fueled by heat and waning protection. Weekly US hospital admissions rose 43% from late June. Occasional bumps in cases likely to continue, experts say.

Furthermore, the World Health Organization on Aug. 9 flagged a new Covid-19 variant that’s spreading quickly and widely. Nicknamed “Eris” and officially designated EG.5, the new offshoot is rapidly gaining ground across the world

In short, albeit the World Health Organization ended the global emergency status for COVID-19 on Friday, 5 May 2023, more than three years after its original declaration, the world did not get rid of the disease yet.

Covid-19 7-day cumulative cases

25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. Source: WHO, retrieved on 18 October 2023.

Situation in 12 selected countries :

China total cases

France total cases

Germany total cases

Iran total cases

Italy total cases

Portugal total cases

Spain total cases

Switzerland total cases

United Kingdom total cases

United States total cases

To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:

COVID-19 significant thresholds
	LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH	LEVEL 3 HIGH	LEVEL 2 MODERATE	LEVEL 1 LOW
Incidence Rate (New reported cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population)	More than 500	100-500	50-99	Fewer than 50

Note ECDC has been areppim's provider of data on the pandemic until 20 June 2022, when it discontinued the data collection and publication of the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide. Thereafter, we reverted to WHO data series to pursue our monitoring of the pandemic. This change of source may render historical comparisons hazardous.
Starting from the week of 20 February 2023, the dashboard is updated by WHO once per week on Wednesdays.

Previous reports available :

March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31