areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 31 October 2021, World:
Death toll: 5,007,534 or 2.03 of the infected cases.
New deaths: 50,966.
Total infection cases: 247,233,728 or 3.14 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 3,085,106 or a new infection ratio of 39.18 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 31 October 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 247,233,728 or 3.14 percent of the population.
New cases: 3,085,106 or a new infection ratio of 39.18 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 50,966.
Death toll: 5,007,534 or 2.03 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 8,501,011 or 3.44% ; total deaths : 218,156 or 4.36% .
America total cases : 93,872,479 or 37.97% ; total deaths : 2,300,096 or 45.93% .
Asia total cases : 69,766,048 or 28.22% ; total deaths : 1,081,704 or 21.60% .
Europe total cases : 74,760,195 or 30.24% ; total deaths : 1,403,622 or 28.03% .
Oceania total cases : 333,995 or 0.14% ; total deaths : 3,956 or 0.08% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. Thereafter, executives indulged in a choreography of stop-and-go steps, easing the prophylactic measures as soon as the contagion rates seemed to slow down, only to reinstate stricter rules as the rates started to increase again. The inevitable result has been a protracted pandemic, aggravated by the surge of virus variants, and a prolonged economic and social suffering.
Powers that be defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and allegedly opted for the first option, the economy. In fact, it seems that they have chosen not to choose, letting themselves be led by the one who shouts louder, their real concern being not to alienate their electoral patrons. Whatever the case, they failed to implement the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both an interminable health chaos, a looming economic collapse, and the widespread alienation of the democratic vote.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the months, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 31 October 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some significant markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 27 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 11 | highest : 42 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 197 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 26 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 158 | highest : 466 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 6 | highest : 96 .
Week ending on 31 October 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 109,666 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 469 or a new infection ratio of 0.033 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,849 or 4.42 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 October 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 7,154,847 or 10.63 percent of the population.
New cases: 39,396 or a new infection ratio of 58.52 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 213.
Death toll: 121,664 or 1.70 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 October 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 4,601,634 or 5.53 percent of the population.
New cases: 132,787 or a new infection ratio of 159.66 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 390.
Death toll: 95,334 or 2.07 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 October 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 5,916,211 or 7.04 percent of the population.
New cases: 64,541 or a new infection ratio of 76.84 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,074.
Death toll: 126,126 or 2.13 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 October 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 4,769,869 or 8.00 percent of the population.
New cases: 20,181 or a new infection ratio of 33.84 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 156.
Death toll: 132,568 or 2.78 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 October 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 1,091,136 or 10.60 percent of the population.
New cases: 5,687 or a new infection ratio of 55.24 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 24.
Death toll: 18,159 or 1.66 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 October 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 5,016,700 or 10.60 percent of the population.
New cases: 9,102 or a new infection ratio of 19.23 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 182.
Death toll: 87,368 or 1.74 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 October 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 873,410 or 10.15 of the population.
New cases: 14,631 or a new infection ratio of 170.01 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 63.
Death toll: 10,817 or 1.24 of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 October 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 9,086,299 or 13.35 percent of the population.
New cases: 312,625 or a new infection ratio of 459.34 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,099.
Death toll: 140,632 or 1.55 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 October 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 45,970,881 or 13.89 percent of the population.
New cases: 526,065 or a new infection ratio of 158.93 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 9,895.
Death toll: 745,836 or 1.62 percent of the infected cases.
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (new cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
June 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
July 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
August 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4