areppim: information, pure and simple
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (new cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 12 July 2021, World:
Death toll: 4,042,997 or 2.16 of the infected cases.
New deaths: 55,991.
Total infection cases: 187,509,169 or 2.41 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 3,086,007 or a new infection ratio of 39.59 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 12 July 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 187,509,169 or 2.41 percent of the population.
New cases: 3,086,007 or a new infection ratio of 39.59 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 55,991.
Death toll: 4,042,997 or 2.16 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 5,961,610 or 3.18% ; total deaths : 151,913 or 3.76% .
America total cases : 74,299,121 or 39.62% ; total deaths : 1,949,981 or 48.23% .
Asia total cases : 51,198,820 or 27.30% ; total deaths : 758,840 or 18.77% .
Europe total cases : 55,959,078 or 29.84% ; total deaths : 1,180,795 or 29.21% .
Oceania total cases : 90,540 or 0.05% ; total deaths : 1,468 or 0.04% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. Thereafter, executives indulged in a choreography of stop-and-go steps, easing the prophylactic measures as soon as the contagion rates seemed to slow down, only to reinstate stricter rules as the rates started to increase again. The inevitable result has been a protracted pandemic, aggravated by the surge of virus variants, and a prolonged economic and social suffering.
People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and allegedly opted for the first option, the economy.They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both an interminable health chaos and a looming economic collapse.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 12 July 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some significant markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 19 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 40 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 189 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 21 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 92 | highest : 462 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 5 | highest : 20 .
Week ending on 12 July 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 104,072 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 206 or a new infection ratio of 0.014 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1.
Death toll: 4,848 or 4.66 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 July 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 5,812,639 or 8.91 percent of the population.
New cases: 26,436 or a new infection ratio of 40.50 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 164.
Death toll: 111,354 or 1.92 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 July 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 3,736,489 or 4.46 percent of the population.
New cases: 5,365 or a new infection ratio of 6.40 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 202.
Death toll: 91,233 or 2.44 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 July 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 3,355,786 or 4.00 percent of the population.
New cases: 114,749 or a new infection ratio of 136.62 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,067.
Death toll: 85,694 or 2.55 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 July 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 4,271,276 or 7.06 percent of the population.
New cases: 7,959 or a new infection ratio of 13.16 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 126.
Death toll: 127,775 or 2.99 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 July 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 909,756 or 8.92 percent of the population.
New cases: 19,185 or a new infection ratio of 188.15 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 47.
Death toll: 17,164 or 1.89 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 July 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,971,124 or 8.49 percent of the population.
New cases: 104,649 or a new infection ratio of 223.83 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 86.
Death toll: 81,020 or 2.04 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 July 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 702,614 or 8.12 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,969 or a new infection ratio of 22.75 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 9.
Death toll: 10,314 or 1.47 of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 July 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 5,121,245 or 7.61 percent of the population.
New cases: 190,712 or a new infection ratio of 283.23 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 194.
Death toll: 128,425 or 2.51 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 July 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 33,855,974 or 10.23 percent of the population.
New cases: 138,400 or a new infection ratio of 41.81 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,637.
Death toll: 607,163 or 1.79 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5