areppim: information, pure and simple
What a memorable age! Pushed against the wall by the angry crowds that have been filling the streets from Hong Kong to Santiago, from Paris to Algiers, politicians and their sidekicks on the brink of collapse welcomed the new coronavirus pandemic as a God given gift. With a sigh of relief they fancied that it was time to have a break. The pandemic came just in time.
Language is a good telltale sign. The Clinton, Bush, Sarkozy, Obama, Macron of the world, all of them waged wars, worked havoc upon the earth, wrecked lots of states and organized societies allegedly to promote democracy, human rights and peace. In fact, “promoting peace” is the other way to designate war in the parlance of the political establishment. We should therefore ask ourselves now what do Trump, Macron and other lesser leaders have in mind when they proclaim in earnest that war is declared against the virus, and appeal to their peoples to unite and join in the fight against the common enemy.
What they really mean is the opposite : they seek to persuade on their peoples that it is time to lay down their arms, stop arguing, muzzle their protests, break off the riot, disband the rallies, forget the grudge, go home, open the fridge, fetch a beer, sit down and watch TV. In other words, shut the clap up, get out of the way, just vanish and let us take care of our business as usual.
The war metaphor is a most convenient device to make a dupe of the naive. It works this way. In order to face the menace of the virus, this sneaky enemy coming from a foreign country to threaten the full nation, the leader feels entitled to demand blind obedience, full unity, zero discord, self-sacrifice, readiness to march no questions asked. Moreover, in times of war we have to make do : the state of emergency is deemed to justify the suspension of the constitutional rights with the ensuing string of such repressive measures as the curfew, quarantine, seclusion, tightened surveillance, called residency, censorship, inclusion in a list of unsure characters, etc.
As a free bonus, it drastically precludes any and all arguments about the shallow preparedness of the “war chiefs” as regards the ruinous state of the health care system, the scrapping of hospital units, the scarcity of beds, sanitary materials and instruments, the weariness of health professionals and the abysmal incompetence of the top layers of executives in charge of health care.
For many decades, the elite of politicians, businessmen and mercenary scientists have been bolstering up their promise of eternal life for mankind by means of NBIC (nanotechnologies, bioengineering, information technologies and cognitive sciences) and rejoicing of the civilizational culmination attained thanks to their wisdom.
The gullible felt thrilled with such grand prospects… until the virus came and proved beyond doubt that thousands of lives could have been spared if only we had ample supplies of simple, affordable stuff such as protective gowns, sanitary masks, hand sanitizers, medical testing devices, breathing ventilators and, in the first place, hospital beds, and enough health professionals. All the things that our civilized countries were supposed to be fully equipped with since the mid 1900s. Unfortunately, as everybody knows, including maybe the “war chiefs”, we are a long way off. It is this unpreparedness, and not the shortage of the killing instinct that those individuals want to arise in us, that is accountable for the loss of, as yet, 10,000 lives.
Someone¹ said that "civilization is a disease produced by the practice of building societies with rotten material." Maybe the unfortunate merit of the coronavirus pandemic is to expose the rottenness of the fabric of which our current society is made.
¹ George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman, 1903.
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
As of 19 July 2020, World:
Death toll: 601,934 or 4.22 percent of the infected cases.
Total cases: 14,267,093 or 0.18 percent of the population.
New cases: 222,224 or a new infection ratio of 2.851 per 100,000 people.
The number of world deaths grew up to 7.28 percent of world cases on 24, 25 April 2020, and moved slowly downwards to the current value thereafter.
Further to the disparate quality of the raw data, to the erratic definitions of the statistical units, and to the shady reliability of the sources, death rates vary widely from country to country in the selected group. Death rate is the highest for France 17.26 percent, and the lowest in Portugal 3.48 percent. According to a study completed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, each person infected early in the epidemic in Wuhan may have passed the virus to an average of 5.7 other people. Should this spread rate hold for the rest of the world, about 82 percent of the world population should be immunized to put a stop to the pandemic.
The pandemic has laid bare the dismal unpreparedness of all administrations, and provided a peephole into the swollen-heads of some state leaders. The French president Macron, who vaingloriously declared himself a “Jupiterian”, not a “normal” chief of state, and labels himself the “commander in chief of the war” on the coronavirus has successfully placed France in the lead of the covid-19 death ratio: almost 20 percent of the infected French die from the disease. Does it hurt the pompous “war leader”?
As for the British prime minister Boris Johnson, he should be praised for his farcical illustration of immanent justice. On March 3rd, he faced the cameras to boast of his contempt for the despicable virus : “you’ll be pleased to know that I was in the hospital yesterday and I shook hands with infected patients, and I won’t stop doing it”. On April 7th, a press release announced that the conceited leader was in an “intensive care unit, fighting against the coronavirus”! While resting in bed he should have plenty of time to savor the practical joke that destiny played on him.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC.
See more charts of deaths projections »
As of 19 July 2020, World:
Total cases: 14,267,093 or 0.18 percent of the population.
New cases: 222,224 or a new infection ratio of 2.851 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 601,934 or 4.22 percent of the infected cases.
As of 19 July 2020, China:
Total cases: 85,483 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 80 or a new infection ratio of 0.006 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 4,646 or 5.43 percent of the infected cases.
As of 19 July 2020, France:
Total cases: 174,674 or 0.27 percent of the population.
New cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 30,152 or 17.26 percent of the infected cases.
Beginning of June, the number of cases took an upturn, suggesting the emergence of a new wave of contagions. We fttted the regression line by means of a bi-logistic function.
As of 19 July 2020, Germany:
Total cases: 201,574 or 0.24 percent of the population.
New cases: 202 or a new infection ratio of 0.241 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 9,084 or 4.51 percent of the infected cases.
In Germany too, the number of cases jumped upwards by mid-June, justifying the use of a bi-logistic regression.
As of 19 July 2020, Iran:
Total cases: 271,606 or 0.32 percent of the population.
New cases: 2,166 or a new infection ratio of 2.579 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 13,979 or 5.15 percent of the infected cases.
As of 19 July 2020, Italy:
Total cases: 244,216 or 0.40 percent of the population.
New cases: 249 or a new infection ratio of 0.412 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 35,042 or 14.35 percent of the infected cases.
As of 19 July 2020, Portugal:
Total cases: 48,390 or 0.47 percent of the population.
New cases: 313 or a new infection ratio of 3.070 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 1,684 or 3.48 percent of the infected cases.
Between May 3 and May 9 the reported figures varied considerably first down, then upwards. Thereafter, the logistic curve fit deteriorated, suggesting the presence of some unidentified new phenomena. We applied now a bi-logistic (double S curve) regression, that delivers a better fit to the actual data, hinting that a second wave (the second S) took off at around mid May.
As of 18 July 2020 (latest available data), Spain:
Total cases: 260,255 or 0.56 percent of the population.
New cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 28,420 or 10.92 percent of the infected cases.
By late June, the situation which seemed pretty much under control, deteriorated with the outbreak of new cases. The bi-logistic regression points to a new wave of contagions.
As of 19 July 2020, Switzerland:
Total cases: 33,406 or 0.39 percent of the population.
New cases: 110 or a new infection ratio of 1.271 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 1,687 or 5.05 percent of the infected cases.
In mid June, Switzerland had a rise of new contamination cases, starting a sequential S curve as shown by the bi-logistic regression.
As of 19 July 2020, United Kingdom:
Total cases: 294,066 or 0.44 percent of the population.
New cases: 827 or a new infection ratio of 1.228 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 45,273 or 15.40 percent of the infected cases.
A major accounting correction, decreasing the number of total cases by almost 30 thousands has been made by the UK responsible agency on 3 July 2020.
As of 19 July 2020, USA:
Total cases: 3,711,464 or 1.12 percent of the population.
New cases: 63,749 or a new infection ratio of 19.259 per 100,000 people.
Death toll: 140,119 or 3.78 percent of the infected cases.
The North American world superpower and beacon of the modern technical civilization has gained the dubious honor of reporting the highest number of both Covid-19 infection cases (26.01 percent of the world total) and of deaths (23.28 percent), and a ratio of daily new infections almost seven fold higher than the world's ratio.
Previous reports available :