areppim: information, pure and simple

areppim: information, pure and simple


You are here:   areppim >   Society: Demography >   COVID-19 pandemic

Talk-show generals

What a memorable age! Pushed against the wall by the angry crowds that have been filling the streets from Hong Kong to Santiago, from Paris to Algiers, politicians and their sidekicks on the brink of collapse welcomed the new coronavirus pandemic as a God given gift. With a sigh of relief they fancied that it was time to have a break. The pandemic came just in time.

Language is a good telltale sign. The Clinton, Bush, Sarkozy, Obama, Macron of the world, all of them waged wars, worked havoc upon the earth, wrecked lots of states and organized societies allegedly to promote democracy, human rights and peace. In fact, “promoting peace” is the other way to designate war in the parlance of the political establishment. We should therefore ask ourselves now what do Trump, Macron and other lesser leaders have in mind when they proclaim in earnest that war is declared against the virus, and appeal to their peoples to unite and join in the fight against the common enemy.

What they really mean is the opposite : they seek to persuade on their peoples that it is time to lay down their arms, stop arguing, muzzle their protests, break off the riot, disband the rallies, forget the grudge, go home, open the fridge, fetch a beer, sit down and watch TV. In other words, shut the clap up, get out of the way, just vanish and let us take care of our business as usual.

The war metaphor is a most convenient device to make a dupe of the naive. It works this way. In order to face the menace of the virus, this sneaky enemy coming from a foreign country to threaten the full nation, the leader feels entitled to demand blind obedience, full unity, zero discord, self-sacrifice, readiness to march no questions asked. Moreover, in times of war we have to make do : the state of emergency is deemed to justify the suspension of the constitutional rights with the ensuing string of such repressive measures as the curfew, quarantine, seclusion, tightened surveillance, called residency, censorship, inclusion in a list of unsure characters, etc.

As a free bonus, it drastically precludes any and all arguments about the shallow preparedness of the “war chiefs” as regards the ruinous state of the health care system, the scrapping of hospital units, the scarcity of beds, sanitary materials and instruments, the weariness of health professionals and the abysmal incompetence of the top layers of executives in charge of health care.

For many decades, the elite of politicians, businessmen and mercenary scientists have been bolstering up their promise of eternal life for mankind by means of NBIC (nanotechnologies, bioengineering, information technologies and cognitive sciences) and rejoicing of the civilizational culmination attained thanks to their wisdom.

The gullible felt thrilled with such grand prospects… until the virus came and proved beyond doubt that thousands of lives could have been spared if only we had ample supplies of simple, affordable stuff such as protective gowns, sanitary masks, hand sanitizers, medical testing devices, breathing ventilators and, in the first place, hospital beds, and enough health professionals. All the things that our civilized countries were supposed to be fully equipped with since the mid 1900s. Unfortunately, as everybody knows, including maybe the “war chiefs”, we are a long way off. It is this unpreparedness, and not the shortage of the killing instinct that those individuals want to arise in us, that is accountable for the loss of, as yet, 10,000 lives.

Someone¹ said that "civilization is a disease produced by the practice of building societies with rotten material." Maybe the unfortunate merit of the coronavirus pandemic is to expose the rottenness of the fabric of which our current society is made.

¹ George Bernard Shaw, Man and Superman, 1903.

 

COVID-19 Pandemic Situation Report
as at 25 June 2020

arrow   Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:

 | World total deaths  | World total cases  | China total cases  | France total cases  | Germany total cases  | Iran total cases  | Italy total cases  | Portugal total cases  | Spain total cases  | Switzerland total cases  | United Kingdom total cases  | United States total cases  | 

 

World: total deaths  top

World: total deaths
As of 25 June 2020, World:
   Death toll: 482,468 or 5.13 percent of the infected cases.
   Total cases: 9,400,295 or 0.12 percent of the population.
   New cases: 170,912, or a new infection ratio of 2.192 per 100,000 people.

The number of world deaths grew up to 7.28 percent of world cases on 24, 25 April 2020, and moved slowly downwards to the current value thereafter.
Further to the disparate quality of the raw data, to the erratic definitions of the statistical units, and to the shady reliability of the sources, death rates vary widely from country to country in the selected group. Death rate is the highest for France 18.43%, and the lowest in Portugal 3.85%. According to a study completed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, each person infected early in the epidemic in Wuhan may have passed the virus to an average of 5.7 other people. Should this spread rate hold for the rest of the world, about 82 percent of the world population should be immunized to put a stop to the pandemic.
The pandemic has laid bare the dismal unpreparedness of all administrations, and provided a peephole into the swollen-heads of some state leaders. The French president Macron, who vaingloriously declared himself a “Jupiterian”, not a “normal” chief of state, and labels himself the “commander in chief of the war” on the coronavirus has successfully placed France in the lead of the covid-19 death ratio: almost 20 percent of the infected French die from the disease. Does it hurt the pompous “war leader”?
As for the British prime minister Boris Johnson, he should be praised for his farcical illustration of immanent justice. On March 3rd, he faced the cameras to boast of his contempt for the despicable virus : “you’ll be pleased to know that I was in the hospital yesterday and I shook hands with infected patients, and I won’t stop doing it”. On April 7th, a press release announced that the conceited leader was in an “intensive care unit, fighting against the coronavirus”! While resting in bed he should have plenty of time to savor the practical joke that destiny played on him.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC.

arrow    See more charts of deaths projections »

 

World: total infection cases  top

World: total cases
As of 25 June 2020, World:
   Total cases: 9,400,295 or 0.12 percent of the population.
   New cases: 170,912, or a new infection ratio of 2.192 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 482,468 or 5.13 percent of the infected cases.

 

China total cases  top

China: total cases
As of 25 June 2020, China:
   Total cases: 84,673, or 0.01 percent of the population.
   New cases: 20, or a new infection ratio of 0.001 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 4,640 or 5.48 percent of the infected cases.

 

France total cases  top

France: total cases
As of 25 June 2020, France:
   Total cases: 161,348, or 0.25 percent of the population.
   New cases: 81, or a new infection ratio of 0.124 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 29,731 or 18.43 percent of the infected cases.

 

Germany total cases  top

Germany: total cases
As of 25 June 2020, Germany:
   Total cases: 192,079 or 0.23 percent of the population.
   New cases: 630, or a new infection ratio of 0.752 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 8,927 or 4.65 percent of the infected cases.

 

Iran total cases  top

Iran: total cases
As of 25 June 2020, Iran:
   Total cases: 212,501 or 0.25 percent of the population.
   New cases: 2,531, or a new infection ratio of 3.013 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 9,996 or 4.70 percent of the infected cases.
The shape of the curve is at odds with the others in the group of selected countries — it does not look like a sigmoid function, nor like a linear, exponential or other common function. Maximum prudence should therefore be taken in evaluating the forecast estimates.

 

Italy total cases  top

Italy: total cases
As of 25 June 2020, Italy:
   Total cases: 239,410 or 0.40 percent of the population.
   New cases: 577, or a new infection ratio of 0.954 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 34,644 or 14.47 percent of the infected cases.

 

Portugal total cases  top

Portugal: total cases
As of 25 June 2020, Portugal:
   Total cases: 40,104 or 0.39 percent of the population.
   New cases: 367, or a new infection ratio of 3.599 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 1,543 or 3.85 percent of the infected cases.
Between May 3 and May 9 the reported figures varied considerably first down, then upwards. Thereafter, the logistic curve fit deteriorated, suggesting the presence of some unidentified new phenomena. We applied now a bi-logistic (double S curve) regression, that fits better the actual data, hinting that a second wave (the second S) took off at around mid May.

 

Spain total cases  top

Spain: total cases
As of 24 June 2020 (last available data), Spain:
   Total cases: 247,086 or 0.53 percent of the population.
   New cases: 334, or a new infection ratio of 0.714 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 28,327 or 11.46 percent of the infected cases.

 

Switzerland total cases  top

Switzerland: total cases
As of 25 June 2020, Switzerland:
   Total cases: 31,293 or 0.36 percent of the population.
   New cases: 44, or a new infection ratio of 0.508 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 1,681 or 5.37 percent of the infected cases.

 

United Kingdom total cases  top

United Kingdom: total cases
As of 25 June 2020, United Kingdom:
   Total cases: 306,862 or 0.46 percent of the population.
   New cases: 652, or a new infection ratio of 0.968 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 43,081 or 14.04 percent of the infected cases.

 

United States total cases  top

United States: total cases
As of 25 June 2020, USA:
   Total cases: 2,381,361 or 0.72 percent of the population.
   New cases: 34,339, or a new infection ratio of 10.374 per 100,000 people.
   Death toll: 121,979 or 5.12 percent of the infected cases.
The North American world superpower has gained the dubious honor of reporting the highest number of both Covid-19 infection cases (25.33 percent of the world total) and deaths (25.28 percent).

 

arrow   Previous reports available :

March :

21 |  22 |  23 |  24 |  25 |  26 |  27 |  28 |  29 |  30 |  31 | 

April :

1 |  2 |  3 |  4 |  5 |  6 |  7 |  8 |  9 |  10 |  11 |  12 |  13 |  14 |  16 |  17 |  18 |  19 |  20 |  21 |  22 |  23 |  24 |  25 |  26 |  27 |  28 |  29 |  30 | 

May :

1 |  2 |  3 |  4 |  5 |  6 |  7 |  8 |  9 |  10 |  11 |  12 |  13 |  14 |  15 |  16 |  17 |  18 |  19 |  20 |  21 |  22 |  23 |  24 |  25 |  26 |  27 |  28 |  29 |  30 |  31 | 

June :

1 |  2 |  3 |  4 |  5 |  6 |  7 |  8 |  9 |  10 |  11 |  12 |  13 |  14 |  15 |  16 |  17 |  19 |  20 |  21 |  22 |  23 |  24 | 

 

 

top