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Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 3 May 2021, World:
Death toll: 3,209,352 or 2.09 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 91,727.
Total infection cases: 153,219,834 or 1.97 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 5,775,970 or a new infection ratio of 74.09 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 3 May 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 153,219,834 or 1.97 percent of the population.
New cases: 5,775,970 or a new infection ratio of 74.09 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 91,727.
Death toll: 3,209,352 or 2.09 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 4,571,789 or 2.98% ; total deaths : 111,339,382 or 3.47% .
America total cases : 63,068,547 or 41.16% ; total deaths : 1,426,241,835 or 44.51% .
Asia total cases : 34,785,351 or 22.70% ; total deaths : 690,405,283 or 21.54% .
Europe total cases : 50,722,847 or 33.10% ; total deaths : 974,376,922 or 30.41% .
Oceania total cases : 71,300 or 0.05% ; total deaths : 2,122,684 or 0.07% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both a Health chaos and an economic collapse.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 3 May 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 16 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 32 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 166 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 20 | highest : 133 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 68 | highest : 470 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 3 | highest : 17 .
Week ending on 3 May 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 102,530 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 146 or a new infection ratio of 0.010 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1.
Death toll: 4,846 or 4.73 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 3 May 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 5,652,247 or 8.66 percent of the population.
New cases: 154,203 or a new infection ratio of 236.24 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,961.
Death toll: 104,848 or 1.85 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 3 May 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 3,425,982 or 4.09 percent of the population.
New cases: 126,657 or a new infection ratio of 151.17 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,652.
Death toll: 83,276 or 2.43 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 3 May 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 2,516,157 or 3.00 percent of the population.
New cases: 119,953 or a new infection ratio of 142.81 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,516.
Death toll: 72,090 or 2.87 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 3 May 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 4,044,762 or 6.69 percent of the population.
New cases: 82,088 or a new infection ratio of 135.77 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,939.
Death toll: 121,177 or 3.00 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 3 May 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 837,457 or 8.21 percent of the population.
New cases: 2,819 or a new infection ratio of 27.65 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 12.
Death toll: 16,977 or 2.03 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 3 May 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,540,430 or 7.57 percent of the population.
New cases: 51,961 or a new infection ratio of 111.14 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 555.
Death toll: 78,293 or 2.21 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 3 May 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 660,916 or 7.64 percent of the population.
New cases: 12,069 or a new infection ratio of 139.45 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 72.
Death toll: 9,987 or 1.51 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 3 May 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 4,420,201 or 6.56 percent of the population.
New cases: 15,319 or a new infection ratio of 22.75 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 110.
Death toll: 127,538 or 2.89 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 3 May 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 32,421,705 or 9.79 percent of the population.
New cases: 296,606 or a new infection ratio of 89.61 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 4,371.
Death toll: 577,045 or 1.78 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4