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Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 19 April 2021, World:
Death toll: 3,023,611 or 2.14 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 81,848.
Total infection cases: 141,495,684 or 1.82 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 5,284,786 or a new infection ratio of 67.79 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
See more charts of deaths projections »
Week ending on 19 April 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 141,495,684 or 1.82 percent of the population.
New cases: 5,284,786 or a new infection ratio of 67.79 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 81,848.
Death toll: 3,023,611 or 2.14 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 4,431,639 or 3.13% ; total deaths : 102,258,787 or 3.52% .
America total cases : 60,380,341 or 42.58% ; total deaths : 1,301,348,947 or 44.82% .
Asia total cases : 28,782,011 or 20.30% ; total deaths : 624,179,545 or 21.50% .
Europe total cases : 48,142,304 or 33.95% ; total deaths : 873,830,249 or 30.09% .
Oceania total cases : 68,956 or 0.05% ; total deaths : 1,980,950 or 0.07% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of about scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. What a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 19 April 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 16 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 32 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 164 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 20 | highest : 82 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 61 | highest : 471 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 3 | highest : 16 .
Week ending on 19 April 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 102,242 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 186 or a new infection ratio of 0.013 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2.
Death toll: 4,845 or 4.74 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 19 April 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 5,289,526 or 8.10 percent of the population.
New cases: 230,846 or a new infection ratio of 353.66 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,984.
Death toll: 100,762 or 1.90 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 19 April 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 3,153,699 or 3.76 percent of the population.
New cases: 142,186 or a new infection ratio of 169.71 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,554.
Death toll: 80,006 or 2.54 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 19 April 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 2,237,089 or 2.66 percent of the population.
New cases: 188,011 or a new infection ratio of 223.84 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,500.
Death toll: 66,732 or 2.98 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 19 April 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 3,870,131 or 6.40 percent of the population.
New cases: 100,317 or a new infection ratio of 165.92 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,673.
Death toll: 116,927 or 3.02 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 19 April 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 831,221 or 8.15 percent of the population.
New cases: 3,456 or a new infection ratio of 33.89 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 28.
Death toll: 16,946 or 2.04 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 19 April 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,428,354 or 7.33 percent of the population.
New cases: 58,098 or a new infection ratio of 124.26 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 577.
Death toll: 77,102 or 2.25 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 19 April 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 634,394 or 7.33 percent of the population.
New cases: 11,268 or a new infection ratio of 130.20 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 64.
Death toll: 9,830 or 1.55 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 19 April 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 4,387,820 or 6.52 percent of the population.
New cases: 14,477 or a new infection ratio of 21.50 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 170.
Death toll: 127,270 or 2.90 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 19 April 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 31,670,846 or 9.57 percent of the population.
New cases: 402,714 or a new infection ratio of 121.66 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 4,683.
Death toll: 567,216 or 1.79 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4