areppim: information, pure and simple

areppim: information, pure and simple


You are here:   areppim >   Society: Demography >   COVID-19 pandemic

COVID-19 Pandemic Situation Report
as at 1 December 2020

arrow   Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:

Covid-19 Reporting Schedule   

We have been using Covid-19 data provided by ECDC (European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), an agency of the European Union, to track and forecast the pandemic contamination cases and the related fatalities for the world and for a selected group of countries.

As announced in its website, ECDC will switch to a weekly reporting schedule for the COVID-19 situation worldwide and in the EU/EEA and the UK from December this year. All daily updates will be discontinued from then.

For the sake of consistency of the underlying data, and considering that other reporting sources such as the World Health Organization or Johns Hopkins University do not track data in exactly the same manner as ECDC, we at areppim shall continue collecting data from the usual source, and will therefore adapt henceforth a weekly reporting schedule (2020-11-30).

 | World total deaths  | World total cases  | 14-day cumulative notifications  | China total cases  | France total cases  | Germany total cases  | Iran total cases  | Italy total cases  | Portugal total cases  | Spain total cases  | Switzerland total cases  | United Kingdom total cases  | United States total cases  | 

 

World: total deaths  top

World: total deaths
As of 1 December 2020, World:
   Death toll: 1,468,822 or 2.32 percent of the infected cases.
   New deaths: 8,420.
   Total infection cases: 63,220,099 or 0.81 percent of the population.
   New infection cases: 464,706 or a new infection ratio of 5.96 per 100,000 people.

How many fatalities is the Covid-19 really causing? The number of world deaths grew up to 7.28 percent of world cases on 24, 25 April 2020, and moved slowly downwards to the current value thereafter. However, we cannot trust the reports to be fully reliable. The 1 December 2020 Bloomberg newsletter warns that Though there are 175,000 confirmed U.S. deaths from the coronavirus, as many as 215,000 more people than usual died during the first seven months of 2020, pointing to a likely undercounting of the pandemic’s toll on America, the world’s worst-hit nation. There is no reason why a similar data discrepancy should not occur across the border in the other countries.

Further to the disparate quality of the raw data, to the erratic definitions of the statistical units, and to the shady reliability of the sources, death rates vary widely from country to country in the selected group. Death rate is the highest for China at 5.16 percent, and the lowest in Switzerland at 1.36 percent. According to a study completed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, each person infected early in the epidemic in Wuhan may have passed the virus to an average of 5.7 other people. Should this spread rate hold for the rest of the world, about 82 percent of the world population should be immunized to put a stop to the pandemic.

The pandemic has laid bare the dismal unpreparedness of all administrations, and provided a peephole into the swollen-heads of some state leaders. The French president Macron, who vaingloriously declared himself a “Jupiterian", not a “normal" chief of state, and labeled himself the “commander in chief of the war on the coronavirus" has successfully placed France in the 3rd rank of infection cases as percent of population, after the USA and Spain (within the group of countries considered by areppim). Does it hurt the pompous “war leader"? As for the U.S. president Trump, the man who insisted the pandemic was a fake news, he remains unruffled by the infamous US performence as the world number one of infection cases and of covid19 fatalities (each one about 20 percent of the total world).

As for the British prime minister Boris Johnson, he should be praised for his farcical illustration of immanent justice. On March 3rd, he faced the cameras to boast of his contempt for the despicable virus : “you’ll be pleased to know that I was in the hospital yesterday and I shook hands with infected patients, and I won’t stop doing it". On April 7th, a press release announced that the conceited leader was in an “intensive care unit, fighting against the coronavirus"! While resting in bed he should have plenty of time to savor the practical joke that destiny played on him.

Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.

arrow    See more charts of deaths projections »

 

World: total infection cases  top

World: total cases

As of 1 December 2020, World:
   Total infection cases: 63,220,099 or 0.81 percent of the population.
   New cases: 464,706 or a new infection ratio of 5.96 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 8,420.
   Death toll: 1,468,822 or 2.32 percent of the infected cases.

The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.

They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom.

Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of almost 1.5 million fatalities, and of about 70 million convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. What a repulsing and contemptible record!

Covid-19 14-day cumulative notifications  top

25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates
As of 1 December 2020, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
   World 14-day notification rate — median : 38.03 ; highest : 1,344.86.
   Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 3.51 ; highest : 164.91.
   America 14-day notification rate — median : 51.45 ; highest : 709.81.
   Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 21.78 ; highest : 691.87.
   Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 416.94 ; highest : 1,344.86.
   Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 1.06 ; highest : 855.76

 

China total cases  top

China: total cases
As of 1 December 2020, China:
   Total infection cases: 91,826 or 0.01 percent of the population.
   New cases: 12 or a new infection ratio of 0.0008 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 4,739 or 5.16 percent of the infected cases.

France total cases  top

France: total cases
As of 1 December 2020, France:
   Total infection cases: 2,222,488 or 3.40 percent of the population.
   New cases: 4,005 or a new infection ratio of 6.14 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 406.
   Death toll: 52,731 or 2.37 percent of the infected cases.

Germany total cases  top

Germany: total cases
As of 1 December 2020, Germany:
   Total infection cases: 1,067,473 or 1.27 percent of the population.
   New cases: 13,604 or a new infection ratio of 16.24 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 388.
   Death toll: 16,636 or 1.56 percent of the infected cases.

Iran total cases  top

Iran: total cases
As of 1 December 2020, Iran:
   Total infection cases: 962,070 or 1.15 percent of the population.
   New cases: 13,321 or a new infection ratio of 15.86 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 371.
   Death toll: 48,246 or 5.01 percent of the infected cases.

Italy total cases  top

Italy: total cases
As of 1 December 2020, Italy:
   Total infection cases: 1,601,554 or 2.65 percent of the population.
   New cases: 16,376 or a new infection ratio of 27.08 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 672.
   Death toll: 55,576 or 3.47 percent of the infected cases.

Portugal total cases  top

Portugal: total cases
As of 1 December 2020, Portugal:
   Total infection cases: 298,061 or 2.92 percent of the population.
   New cases: 3,262 or a new infection ratio of 31.99 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 78.
   Death toll: 4,505 or 1.51 percent of the infected cases.

Spain total cases  top

Spain: total cases
As of 30 November 2020 (latest reported data), Spain:
   Total infection cases: 1,648,187 or 3.53 percent of the population.
   New cases: 19,979 or a new infection ratio of 42.73 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 401.
   Death toll: 45,069 or 2.73 percent of the infected cases.

Switzerland total cases  top

Switzerland: total cases
As of 1 December 2020, Switzerland:
   Total infection cases: 325,770 or 3.76 percent of the population.
   New cases: 8,753 or a new infection ratio of 101.14 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 194.
   Death toll: 4,430 or 1.36 percent of the infected cases.

United Kingdom total cases  top

United Kingdom: total cases
As of 1 December 2020, United Kingdom:
   Total infection cases: 1,629,657 or 2.42 percent of the population.
   New cases: 12,330 or a new infection ratio of 18.31 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 203.
   Death toll: 58,448 or 3.59 percent of the infected cases.

United States total cases  top

United States: total cases
As of 1 December 2020, USA:
   Total infection cases: 13,541,224 or 4.09 percent of the population.
   New cases: 157,903 or a new infection ratio of 47.70 per 100,000 people.
   New deaths: 1,172.
   Death toll: 268,045 or 1.98 percent of the infected cases.

 


 

arrow   Previous reports available :

March 2020 : 21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31 

April 2020 : 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30 

May 2020 : 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31 

June 2020 : 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30 

July 2020 : 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31 

August 2020 : 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31 

September 2020 : 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30 

October 2020 : 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30  31 

November 2020 : 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  23  24  25  26  27  28  29  30 


top