areppim: information, pure and simple
The logistic S-curve seems to provide a good fit with the actual numbers of deaths for the countries of which we have been tracking the number of infections.
However, the odd twisting of the curves in such instances as Iran or Portugal, and the quantum changes of the numbers from China or Spain betray the doubtful quality of the raw data. In reality the number of deaths may be considerably different, most probably significantly higher than what the state provided figures suggest.
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | China total deaths | France total deaths | Germany total deaths | Iran total deaths | Italy total deaths | Portugal total deaths | Spain total deaths | Switzerland total deaths | United Kingdom total deaths | United States total deaths |
As of 7 June 2020, World : 398,636 deaths worldwide, or 5.83 percent of the total 6,835,723 infection cases (which represent 0.09 percent of the world population).
As of 7 June 2020, China : total of 4,638 deaths or 5.51 percent of the 84,186 reported infections. On 17 April 2020, a significant step change took place. Thereupon the curve has been flat. This is portrayed by the bi-logistic double-S regression curve.
As of 7 June 2020, France : total of 29,142 deaths or 18.97 percent of the 153,634 reported infections.
As of 7 June 2020, Germany : total of 8,668 deaths or 4.71 percent of 183,979 reported infections.
As of 7 June 2020, Iran : total of 8,209 deaths or 4.85 percent of 169,425 reported infections.
As of 7 June 2020, Italy : total of 33,846 deaths or 14.41 percent of 234,801 reported infections.
As of 7 June 2020, Portugal : total of 1,474 deaths or 4.29 percent of 34,351 reported infections.
As of 6 June 2020 (last available data), Spain : total of 27,135 deaths or 11.24 percent of 241,310 reported infections. A steep downward adjustment of numbers of deaths took place on 25 May 2010.
As of 7 June 2020, Switzerland : total of 1,660 deaths or 5.38 percent of 30,873 reported infections.
As of 7 June 2020, United Kingdom : total of 40,465 deaths or 14.20 percent of 284,868 reported infections.
As of 7 June 2020, USA : total of 109,802 or 5.72 percent of 1,920,061 reported infections.
Previous reports available :