areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
As of 14 October 2020, World:
Death toll: 1,087,035 or 2.85 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 5,291.
Total infection cases: 38,197,063 or 0.49 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 304,963 or a new infection ratio of 3.91 per 100,000 people.
How many fatalities is the Covid-19 really causing? The number of world deaths grew up to 7.28 percent of world cases on 24, 25 April 2020, and moved slowly downwards to the current value thereafter. However, we cannot trust the reports to be fully reliable. The 14 October 2020 Bloomberg newsletter warns that Though there are 175,000 confirmed U.S. deaths from the coronavirus, as many as 215,000 more people than usual died during the first seven months of 2020, pointing to a likely undercounting of the pandemic’s toll on America, the world’s worst-hit nation.
There is no reason why a similar data discrepancy should not occur across the border in the other countries.
Further to the disparate quality of the raw data, to the erratic definitions of the statistical units, and to the shady reliability of the sources, death rates vary widely from country to country in the selected group. Death rate is the highest for Italy at 9.92 percent, and the lowest in Portugal 2.37 percent. According to a study completed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, each person infected early in the epidemic in Wuhan may have passed the virus to an average of 5.7 other people. Should this spread rate hold for the rest of the world, about 82 percent of the world population should be immunized to put a stop to the pandemic.
The pandemic has laid bare the dismal unpreparedness of all administrations, and provided a peephole into the swollen-heads of some state leaders. The French president Macron, who vaingloriously declared himself a “Jupiterian", not a “normal" chief of state, and labels himself the “commander in chief of the war" on the coronavirus has successfully placed France in the lead of the covid-19 death ratio: almost 20 percent of the infected French die from the disease. Does it hurt the pompous “war leader"?
As for the British prime minister Boris Johnson, he should be praised for his farcical illustration of immanent justice. On March 3rd, he faced the cameras to boast of his contempt for the despicable virus : “you’ll be pleased to know that I was in the hospital yesterday and I shook hands with infected patients, and I won’t stop doing it". On April 7th, a press release announced that the conceited leader was in an “intensive care unit, fighting against the coronavirus"! While resting in bed he should have plenty of time to savor the practical joke that destiny played on him.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
See more charts of deaths projections »
As of 14 October 2020, World:
Total infection cases: 38,197,063 or 0.49 percent of the population.
New cases: 304,963 or a new infection ratio of 3.91 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 5,291.
Death toll: 1,087,035 or 2.85 percent of the infected cases.
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of 900,000 fatalities, and of 35 million convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. What a repulsing and contemptible record!
As of 14 October 2020, China:
Total infection cases: 90,858 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 28 or a new infection ratio of 0.002 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,739 or 5.22 percent of the infected cases.
As of 14 October 2020, France:
Total infection cases: 756,472 or 1.16 percent of the population.
New cases: 12,993 or a new infection ratio of 19.91 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 108.
Death toll: 32,933 or 4.35 percent of the infected cases.
Beginning of June, the number of cases took an upturn, suggesting the emergence of a new wave of contagions. Recently, the upward trend asserted itself, exposing the inability of the French authorities (mostly the self-appointed pandemic-war commander-in-chief Macron) to keep the pandemic under control. At the current pace, France will have about one million infection cases by Christmas 2020.
As of 14 October 2020, Germany:
Total infection cases: 334,585 or 0.40 percent of the population.
New cases: 5,132 or a new infection ratio of 6.13 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 43.
Death toll: 9,677 or 2.89 percent of the infected cases.
In Germany too, the number of cases jumped upwards by mid-June, indicating an unforeseen rise of the infections.
As of 14 October 2020, Iran:
Total infection cases: 508,389 or 0.61 percent of the population.
New cases: 4,108 or a new infection ratio of 4.89 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 254.
Death toll: 29,070 or 5.72 percent of the infected cases.
As of 14 October 2020, Italy:
Total infection cases: 365,467 or 0.60 percent of the population.
New cases: 5,898 or a new infection ratio of 9.75 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 41.
Death toll: 36,246 or 9.92 percent of the infected cases.
As of 14 October 2020, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 89,121 or 0.87 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,208 or a new infection ratio of 11.85 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 16.
Death toll: 2,110 or 2.37 percent of the infected cases.
Between May 3 and May 9 the reported figures varied considerably first down, then upwards. Thereafter, the situation deteriorated. It is preposterous that local politicians still mention the risk
of a second pandemic wave, whereas data clearly shows that an actual - more precisely, a mathematical - second wave took off at mid May, and a third wave just reached the Portuguese shores on the week starting on 23 August. As the French say, le ridicule ne tue pas!
(ridicule never killed anyone). True, although one should add : Sadly, the Covid-19 does kill indeed !
.
As of 13 October 2020 (latest available data), Spain:
Total infection cases: 896,086 or 1.92 percent of the population.
New cases: 7,118 or a new infection ratio of 15.22 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 80.
Death toll: 33,204 or 3.71 percent of the infected cases.
By late June, the situation which seemed pretty much in check, deteriorated with the outbreak of a high number of new cases, and appears to be out of control.
As of 14 October 2020, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 65,726 or 0.76 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,439 or a new infection ratio of 16.63 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 7.
Death toll: 1,807 or 2.75 percent of the infected cases.
In mid June, Switzerland had a rise of new contamination cases, starting a new S curve.
As of 14 October 2020, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 634,920 or 0.94 percent of the population.
New cases: 17,232 or a new infection ratio of 25.59 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 143.
Death toll: 43,018 or 6.78 percent of the infected cases.
As of 14 October 2020, USA:
Total infection cases: 7,856,714 or 2.37 percent of the population.
New cases: 52,517 or a new infection ratio of 15.87 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 817.
Death toll: 215,902 or 2.75 percent of the infected cases.
The North American world superpower and beacon of the modern technical civilization has gained the dubious honor of reporting the highest number of both Covid-19 infection cases (20.57 percent of the world total) and of deaths (19.86 percent), and a ratio of daily new infections fourfold higher than the world's ratio.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30