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How good does the logistic S-curve fit the deaths data for the countries of which we have been tracking the number of infections? To get an insight into it, we have computed the curve values for the data available on 22 May 2020. The results show that the goodness of fit is at least as good for the deaths as it is for the infections.
We would also like to ascertain how accurate are the S-curve predictions. The curves show that in most of the selected countries the number of deaths are moving close to their upper limit. That is good news — but is it reliable? The future will tell... We never bragged about the clairvoyant power of the logistic S-curve or any other mathematical tool for that matter. But we maintain that it helps to get a clearer view of what is going on.
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | China total deaths | France total deaths | Germany total deaths | Iran total deaths | Italy total deaths | Portugal total deaths | Spain total deaths | Switzerland total deaths | United Kingdom total deaths | United States total deaths |
As of 22 May 2020, World : 332,711 deaths worldwide, or 6.57 percent of the total 5,067,579 infection cases (which represent 0.07 percent of the world population).
As of 22 May 2020, China : total of 4,638 deaths or 5.52 percent of the 84,079 reported infections. On 17 April 2020, a significant step change took place. Thereupon the curve has been flat.
As of 22 May 2020, France : total of 28,215 deaths or 19.57 percent of the 144,163 reported infections..
As of 22 May 2020, Germany : total of 8,174 deaths or 4.61 percent of 177,212 reported infections.
As of 22 May 2020, Iran : total of 7,249 deaths or 5.60 percent of 129,341 reported infections.
As of 22 May 2020, Italy : total of 32,486 deaths or 14.25 percent of 228,006 reported infections.
As of 22 May 2020, Portugal : total of 1,277 deaths or 4.27 percent of 29,912 reported infections.
As of 21 May 2020 (last available data), Spain : total of 27,940 deaths or 11.99 percent of 233,037 reported infections.
As of 22 May 2020, Switzerland : total of 1,637 deaths or 5.35 percent of 30,611 reported infections.
As of 22 May 2020, United Kingdom : total of 36,042 deaths or 14.36 percent of 250,908 reported infections.
As of 22 May 2020, USA : total of 94,702 or 6.00 percent of 1,577,287 reported infections.