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Covid-19 deaths

How good does the logistic S-curve fit the deaths data for the countries of which we have been tracking the number of infections? To get an insight into it, we have computed the curve values for the data available on 22 May 2020. The results show that the goodness of fit is at least as good for the deaths as it is for the infections.

We would also like to ascertain how accurate are the S-curve predictions. The curves show that in most of the selected countries the number of deaths are moving close to their upper limit. That is good news — but is it reliable? The future will tell... We never bragged about the clairvoyant power of the logistic S-curve or any other mathematical tool for that matter. But we maintain that it helps to get a clearer view of what is going on.

 

COVID-19 Pandemic deaths forecast
as at 22 May 2020

arrow   Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:

 | World total deaths  | China total deaths  | France total deaths  | Germany total deaths  | Iran total deaths  | Italy total deaths  | Portugal total deaths  | Spain total deaths  | Switzerland total deaths  | United Kingdom total deaths  | United States total deaths  | 

 

World: total deaths  top

World: total deaths
As of 22 May 2020, World : 332,711 deaths worldwide, or 6.57 percent of the total 5,067,579 infection cases (which represent 0.07 percent of the world population).

 

China total deaths  top

China: total deaths
As of 22 May 2020, China : total of 4,638 deaths or 5.52 percent of the 84,079 reported infections. On 17 April 2020, a significant step change took place. Thereupon the curve has been flat.

 

France total deaths  top

France: total deaths
As of 22 May 2020, France : total of 28,215 deaths or 19.57 percent of the 144,163 reported infections..

 

Germany total deaths  top

Germany: total deaths
As of 22 May 2020, Germany : total of 8,174 deaths or 4.61 percent of 177,212 reported infections.

 

Iran total deaths  top

Iran: total deaths
As of 22 May 2020, Iran : total of 7,249 deaths or 5.60 percent of 129,341 reported infections.

 

Italy total deaths  top

Italy: total deaths
As of 22 May 2020, Italy : total of 32,486 deaths or 14.25 percent of 228,006 reported infections.

 

Portugal total deaths  top

Portugal: total deaths
As of 22 May 2020, Portugal : total of 1,277 deaths or 4.27 percent of 29,912 reported infections.

 

Spain total deaths  top

Spain: total deaths
As of 21 May 2020 (last available data), Spain : total of 27,940 deaths or 11.99 percent of 233,037 reported infections.

 

Switzerland total deaths  top

Switzerland: total deaths
As of 22 May 2020, Switzerland : total of 1,637 deaths or 5.35 percent of 30,611 reported infections.

 

United Kingdom total deaths  top

United Kingdom: total deaths
As of 22 May 2020, United Kingdom : total of 36,042 deaths or 14.36 percent of 250,908 reported infections.

 

United States total deaths  top

United States: total deaths
As of 22 May 2020, USA : total of 94,702 or 6.00 percent of 1,577,287 reported infections.

 

 

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