areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 5 April 2021, World:
Death toll: 2,857,860 or 2.17 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 66,863.
Total infection cases: 131,638,387 or 1.69 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 4,042,411 or a new infection ratio of 51.86 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
See more charts of deaths projections »
Week ending on 5 April 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 131,638,387 or 1.69 percent of the population.
New cases: 4,042,411 or a new infection ratio of 51.86 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 66,863.
Death toll: 2,857,860 or 2.17 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa Africa total cases : 4,268,688 ; total deaths : 113,798 .
America America total cases : 57,314,971 ; total deaths : 1,380,490 .
Asia Asia total cases : 25,106,356 ; total deaths : 390,696 .
Europe Europe total cases : 44,882,774 ; total deaths : 971,595 .
Oceania Oceania total cases : 65,598 ; total deaths : 1,281 .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of about scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. What a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 5 April 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
World World 14-day notification rate — median : 15 | highest : 500 .
Africa Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 32 .
America America 14-day notification rate — median : 162 | highest : 500 .
Asia Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 20 | highest : 40 .
Europe Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 59 | highest : 471 .
Oceania Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 3 | highest : 16 .
Week ending on 5 April 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 101,860 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 184 or a new infection ratio of 0.013 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,841 or 4.75 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 5 April 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 4,822,470 or 7.39 percent of the population.
New cases: 276,881 or a new infection ratio of 424.19 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,055.
Death toll: 96,678 or 2.00 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 5 April 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 2,893,883 or 3.45 percent of the population.
New cases: 111,610 or a new infection ratio of 133.21 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,100.
Death toll: 77,013 or 2.66 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 5 April 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 1,932,074 or 2.30 percent of the population.
New cases: 85,151 or a new infection ratio of 101.38 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 852.
Death toll: 63,160 or 3.27 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 5 April 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 3,668,264 or 6.07 percent of the population.
New cases: 136,207 or a new infection ratio of 225.28 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 3,097.
Death toll: 111,030 or 3.03 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 5 April 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 823,494 or 8.08 percent of the population.
New cases: 2,778 or a new infection ratio of 27.24 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 42.
Death toll: 16,885 or 2.05 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 5 April 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,311,325 or 7.08 percent of the population.
New cases: 40,500 or a new infection ratio of 86.62 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 584.
Death toll: 75,783 or 2.29 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 5 April 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 602,578 or 6.96 percent of the population.
New cases: 8,535 or a new infection ratio of 98.62 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 88.
Death toll: 9,677 or 1.61 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 5 April 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 4,359,388 or 6.47 percent of the population.
New cases: 26,346 or a new infection ratio of 39.13 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 244.
Death toll: 126,836 or 2.91 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 5 April 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 30,706,129 or 9.28 percent of the population.
New cases: 374,335 or a new infection ratio of 113.09 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 4,965.
Death toll: 555,001 or 1.81 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4