areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
As of 10 December 2020, World:
Death toll: 1,570,152 or 2.29 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 12,032.
Total infection cases: 68,619,111 or 0.88 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 634,302 or a new infection ratio of 8.14 per 100,000 people.
How many fatalities is the Covid-19 really causing? The number of world deaths grew up to 7.28 percent of world cases on 24, 25 April 2020, and moved slowly downwards to the current value thereafter. However, we cannot trust the reports to be fully reliable. The 10 December 2020 Bloomberg newsletter warns that Though there are 175,000 confirmed U.S. deaths from the coronavirus, as many as 215,000 more people than usual died during the first seven months of 2020, pointing to a likely undercounting of the pandemic’s toll on America, the world’s worst-hit nation.
There is no reason why a similar data discrepancy should not occur across the border in the other countries.
Further to the disparate quality of the raw data, to the erratic definitions of the statistical units, and to the shady reliability of the sources, death rates vary widely from country to country in the selected group. Death rate is the highest for China at 5.15 percent, and the lowest in Switzerland at 1.43 percent. According to a study completed by the Los Alamos National Laboratory, each person infected early in the epidemic in Wuhan may have passed the virus to an average of 5.7 other people. Should this spread rate hold for the rest of the world, about 82 percent of the world population should be immunized to put a stop to the pandemic.
The pandemic has laid bare the dismal unpreparedness of all administrations, and provided a peephole into the swollen-heads of some state leaders. The French president Macron, who vaingloriously declared himself a “Jupiterian", not a “normal" chief of state, and labeled himself the “commander in chief of the war on the coronavirus" has successfully placed France in the 3rd rank of infection cases as percent of population, after the USA and Spain (within the group of countries considered by areppim). Does it hurt the pompous “war leader"? As for the U.S. president Trump, the man who insisted the pandemic was a fake news, he remains unruffled by the infamous US performence as the world number one of infection cases and of covid19 fatalities (each one about 20 percent of the total world).
As for the British prime minister Boris Johnson, he should be praised for his farcical illustration of immanent justice. On March 3rd, he faced the cameras to boast of his contempt for the despicable virus : “you’ll be pleased to know that I was in the hospital yesterday and I shook hands with infected patients, and I won’t stop doing it". On April 7th, a press release announced that the conceited leader was in an “intensive care unit, fighting against the coronavirus"! While resting in bed he should have plenty of time to savor the practical joke that destiny played on him.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
See more charts of deaths projections »
As of 10 December 2020, World:
Total infection cases: 68,619,111 or 0.88 percent of the population.
New cases: 634,302 or a new infection ratio of 8.14 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 12,032.
Death toll: 1,570,152 or 2.29 percent of the infected cases.
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of almost 1.5 million fatalities, and of about 70 million convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. What a repulsing and contemptible record!
As of 10 December 2020, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 37.14 ; highest : 1,507.80.
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 3.41 ; highest : 141.69.
America 14-day notification rate — median : 44.27 ; highest : 805.88.
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 22.29 ; highest : 555.54.
Europe 14-day notification rate : median : 448.80 ; highest : 1,507.80.
Oceania 14-day notification rate : median : 0.67 ; highest : 649.87.
As of 10 December 2020, China:
Total infection cases: 91,957 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 12 or a new infection ratio of 0.0008 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,739 or 5.16 percent of the infected cases.
As of 10 December 2020, France:
Total infection cases: 2,324,216 or 3.56 percent of the population.
New cases: 14,595 or a new infection ratio of 22.36 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 296.
Death toll: 56,648 or 2.44 percent of the infected cases.
As of 10 December 2020, Germany:
Total infection cases: 1,242,203 or 1.48 percent of the population.
New cases: 23,679 or a new infection ratio of 28.26 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 440.
Death toll: 20,372 or 1.64 percent of the infected cases.
As of 10 December 2020, Iran:
Total infection cases: 1,072,620 or 1.28 percent of the population.
New cases: 10,223 or a new infection ratio of 12.17 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 295.
Death toll: 51,212 or 4.77 percent of the infected cases.
As of 10 December 2020, Italy:
Total infection cases: 1,770,149 or 2.93 percent of the population.
New cases: 12,755 or a new infection ratio of 21.10 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 499.
Death toll: 61,739 or 3.49 percent of the infected cases.
As of 10 December 2020, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 332,073 or 3.26 percent of the population.
New cases: 7,002 or a new infection ratio of 68.67 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 151.
Death toll: 5,192 or 1.56 percent of the infected cases.
As of 9 December 2020 (latest reported data), Spain:
Total infection cases: 1,712,101 or 3.66 percent of the population.
New cases: 9,773 or a new infection ratio of 20.90 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 373.
Death toll: 47,019 or 2.75 percent of the infected cases.
As of 10 December 2020, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 362,180 or 4.18 percent of the population.
New cases: 5,059 or a new infection ratio of 58.45 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 87.
Death toll: 5,186 or 1.43 percent of the infected cases.
As of 10 December 2020, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 1,766,819 or 2.62 percent of the population.
New cases: 16,578 or a new infection ratio of 24.62 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 533.
Death toll: 62,566 or 3.54 percent of the infected cases.
As of 10 December 2020, USA:
Total infection cases: 15,391,701 or 4.65 percent of the population.
New cases: 220,025 or a new infection ratio of 66.47 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 3,124.
Death toll: 289,431 or 1.88 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30