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Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 26 April 2021, World:
Death toll: 3,117,536 or 2.11 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 90,525.
Total infection cases: 147,443,143 or 1.89 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 5,638,231 or a new infection ratio of 72.33 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 26 April 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 147,443,143 or 1.89 percent of the population.
New cases: 5,638,231 or a new infection ratio of 72.33 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 90,525.
Death toll: 3,117,536 or 2.11 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 4,508,664 or 3.06% ; total deaths : 106,767,451 or 3.50% .
America total cases : 61,824,341 or 41.93% ; total deaths : 1,363,173,288 or 44.68% .
Asia total cases : 31,440,411 or 21.32% ; total deaths : 655,618,738 or 21.49% .
Europe total cases : 49,599,293 or 33.64% ; total deaths : 923,654,099 or 30.27% .
Oceania total cases : 70,434 or 0.05% ; total deaths : 2,051,384 or 0.07% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of about scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. What a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 26 April 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 16 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 32 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 165 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 20 | highest : 107 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 64 | highest : 470 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 3 | highest : 17 .
Week ending on 26 April 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 102,384 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 142 or a new infection ratio of 0.01 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,845 or 4.73 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 26 April 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 5,498,044 or 8.42 percent of the population.
New cases: 208,518 or a new infection ratio of 319.45 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,125.
Death toll: 102,887 or 1.87 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 26 April 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 3,299,325 or 3.94 percent of the population.
New cases: 145,626 or a new infection ratio of 173.81 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,618.
Death toll: 81,624 or 2.47 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 26 April 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 2,396,204 or 2.85 percent of the population.
New cases: 159,115 or a new infection ratio of 189.44 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,842.
Death toll: 69,574 or 2.90 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 26 April 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 3,962,674 or 6.55 percent of the population.
New cases: 92,543 or a new infection ratio of 153.06 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,311.
Death toll: 119,238 or 3.01 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 26 April 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 834,638 or 8.19 percent of the population.
New cases: 3,417 or a new infection ratio of 33.51 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 19.
Death toll: 16,965 or 2.03 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 26 April 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,488,469 or 7.46 percent of the population.
New cases: 60,115 or a new infection ratio of 128.58 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 636.
Death toll: 77,738 or 2.23 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 26 April 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 648,847 or 7.50 percent of the population.
New cases: 14,453 or a new infection ratio of 167.00 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 85.
Death toll: 9,915 or 1.53 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 26 April 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 4,404,882 or 6.54 percent of the population.
New cases: 17,062 or a new infection ratio of 25.34 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 158.
Death toll: 127,428 or 2.89 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 26 April 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 32,125,099 or 9.71 percent of the population.
New cases: 454,253 or a new infection ratio of 137.24 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 5,458.
Death toll: 572,674 or 1.78 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4