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Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 31 May 2021, World:
Death toll: 3,549,710 or 2.08 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 81,928.
Total infection cases: 171,049,741 or 2.19 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 3,501,155 or a new infection ratio of 44.91 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 31 May 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 171,049,741 or 2.19 percent of the population.
New cases: 3,501,155 or a new infection ratio of 44.91 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 81,928.
Death toll: 3,549,710 or 2.08 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 4,835,646 or 2.83% ; total deaths : 130,399 or 3.67% .
America total cases : 67,895,582 or 39.69% ; total deaths : 1,659,173 or 46.74% .
Asia total cases : 44,947,054 or 26.28% ; total deaths : 624,255 or 17.59% .
Europe total cases : 53,294,291 or 31.16% ; total deaths : 1,134,485 or 31.96% .
Oceania total cases : 76,463 or 0.04% ; total deaths : 1,392 or 0.04% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both a Health chaos and an economic collapse.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 31 May 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 16 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 32 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 177 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 20 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 78 | highest : 471 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 4 | highest : 17 .
Week ending on 31 May 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 102,987 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 114 or a new infection ratio of 0.008 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,846 or 4.71 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 May 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 5,666,113 or 8.68 percent of the population.
New cases: 62,447 or a new infection ratio of 95.67 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 806.
Death toll: 109,431 or 1.93 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 May 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 3,681,126 or 4.39 percent of the population.
New cases: 29,486 or a new infection ratio of 35.19 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,019.
Death toll: 88,442 or 2.40 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 May 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 2,893,218 or 3.44 percent of the population.
New cases: 69,331 or a new infection ratio of 82.54 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,360.
Death toll: 79,741 or 2.76 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 May 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 4,216,003 or 6.97 percent of the population.
New cases: 23,820 or a new infection ratio of 39.40 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 821.
Death toll: 126,046 or 2.99 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 May 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 849,093 or 8.33 percent of the population.
New cases: 3,628 or a new infection ratio of 35.58 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 7.
Death toll: 17,025 or 2.01 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 May 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,678,390 or 7.87 percent of the population.
New cases: 30,870 or a new infection ratio of 66.03 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 242.
Death toll: 79,953 or 2.17 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 May 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 691,636 or 7.99 percent of the population.
New cases: 4,607 or a new infection ratio of 53.23 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 80.
Death toll: 10,262 or 1.48 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 May 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 4,484,056 or 6.66 percent of the population.
New cases: 21,518 or a new infection ratio of 31.96 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 60.
Death toll: 127,781 or 2.85 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 31 May 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 33,259,571 or 10.05 percent of the population.
New cases: 141,806 or a new infection ratio of 42.84 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 4,538.
Death toll: 594,431 or 1.79 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5