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Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 10 May 2021, World:
Death toll: 3,299,562 or 2.08 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 90,133.
Total infection cases: 158,672,935 or 2.04 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 5,453,333 or a new infection ratio of 69.96 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 10 May 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 158,672,935 or 2.04 percent of the population.
New cases: 5,453,333 or a new infection ratio of 69.96 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 90,133.
Death toll: 3,299,562 or 2.08 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 4,634,819 or 2.92% ; total deaths : 124,427 or 3.77% .
America total cases : 64,303,763 or 40.53% ; total deaths : 1,566,687 or 47.48% .
Asia total cases : 38,062,908 or 23.99% ; total deaths : 513,637 or 15.57% .
Europe total cases : 51,599,270 or 32.52% ; total deaths : 1,093,462 or 33.14% .
Oceania total cases : 72,175 or 0.05% ; total deaths : 1,349 or 0.04% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both a Health chaos and an economic collapse.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 10 May 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 16 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 32 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 168 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 20 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 73 | highest : 471 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 4 | highest : 17 .
Week ending on 10 May 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 102,625 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 95 or a new infection ratio of 0.007 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,846 or 4.72 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 10 May 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 5,777,087 or 8.85 percent of the population.
New cases: 124,840 or a new infection ratio of 191.26 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,573.
Death toll: 106,421 or 1.84 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 10 May 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 3,527,251 or 4.21 percent of the population.
New cases: 101,269 or a new infection ratio of 120.87 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,553.
Death toll: 84,829 or 2.40 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 10 May 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 2,640,670 or 3.14 percent of the population.
New cases: 124,513 or a new infection ratio of 148.24 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,434.
Death toll: 74,524 or 2.82 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 10 May 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 4,111,210 or 6.80 percent of the population.
New cases: 66,448 or a new infection ratio of 109.90 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,656.
Death toll: 122,833 or 2.99 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 10 May 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 839,740 or 8.24 percent of the population.
New cases: 2,283 or a new infection ratio of 22.39 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 16.
Death toll: 16,993 or 2.02 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 10 May 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,581,392 or 7.66 percent of the population.
New cases: 40,962 or a new infection ratio of 87.61 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 602.
Death toll: 78,895 or 2.20 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 10 May 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 671,230 or 7.76 percent of the population.
New cases: 10,314 or a new infection ratio of 119.17 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 85.
Death toll: 10,072 or 1.50 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 10 May 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 4,434,860 or 6.59 percent of the population.
New cases: 14,659 or a new infection ratio of 21.77 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 67.
Death toll: 127,605 or 2.88 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 10 May 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 32,707,797 or 9.88 percent of the population.
New cases: 286,092 or a new infection ratio of 86.43 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 4,709.
Death toll: 581,754 or 1.78 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1