areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 17 May 2021, World:
Death toll: 3,384,697 or 2.07 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 84,984.
Total infection cases: 163,737,926 or 2.10 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 4,671,927 or a new infection ratio of 59.93 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 17 May 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 163,737,926 or 2.10 percent of the population.
New cases: 4,671,927 or a new infection ratio of 59.93 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 84,984.
Death toll: 3,384,697 or 2.07 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 4,695,132 or 2.87% ; total deaths : 126,394 or 3.73% .
America total cases : 65,431,924 or 39.96% ; total deaths : 1,595,323 or 47.13% .
Asia total cases : 40,859,830 or 24.95% ; total deaths : 551,576 or 16.30% .
Europe total cases : 52,676,982 or 32.17% ; total deaths : 1,110,039 or 32.80% .
Oceania total cases : 74,058 or 0.05% ; total deaths : 1,365 or 0.04% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both a Health chaos and an economic collapse.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 17 May 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 16 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 32 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 169 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 20 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 77 | highest : 471 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 4 | highest : 17 .
Week ending on 17 May 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 102,746 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 121 or a new infection ratio of 0.008 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,846 or 4.72 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 17 May 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 5,877,787 or 9.00 percent of the population.
New cases: 100,700 or a new infection ratio of 154.27 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,224.
Death toll: 107,645 or 1.83 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 17 May 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 3,598,846 or 4.30 percent of the population.
New cases: 71,595 or a new infection ratio of 85.45 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,331.
Death toll: 86,160 or 2.39 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 17 May 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 2,739,875 or 3.26 percent of the population.
New cases: 99,205 or a new infection ratio of 118.11 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,109.
Death toll: 76,633 or 2.80 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 17 May 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 4,159,122 or 6.88 percent of the population.
New cases: 47,912 or a new infection ratio of 79.24 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,323.
Death toll: 124,156 or 2.99 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 17 May 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 842,381 or 8.26 percent of the population.
New cases: 2,641 or a new infection ratio of 25.90 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 16.
Death toll: 17,009 or 2.02 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 17 May 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,615,860 or 7.73 percent of the population.
New cases: 34,468 or a new infection ratio of 73.72 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 537.
Death toll: 79,432 or 2.20 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 17 May 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 679,078 or 7.85 percent of the population.
New cases: 7,848 or a new infection ratio of 90.68 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 58.
Death toll: 10,130 or 1.49 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 17 May 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 4,450,777 or 6.61 percent of the population.
New cases: 15,917 or a new infection ratio of 23.64 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 74.
Death toll: 127,679 or 2.87 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 17 May 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 32,943,878 or 9.95 percent of the population.
New cases: 236,081 or a new infection ratio of 71.32 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 4,247.
Death toll: 586,001 or 1.78 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5