areppim: information, pure and simple
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (new cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 21 June 2021, World:
Death toll: 3,813,127 or 2.16 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 75,105.
Total infection cases: 176,693,788 or 2.27 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 2,668,955 or a new infection ratio of 34.24 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 21 June 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 176,693,788 or 2.27 percent of the population.
New cases: 2,668,955 or a new infection ratio of 34.24 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 75,105.
Death toll: 3,813,127 or 2.16 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 5,212,918 or 2.91% ; total deaths : 137,518 or 3.55% .
America total cases : 71,244,692 or 39.78% ; total deaths : 1,872,111 or 48.29% .
Asia total cases : 48,223,384 or 26.93% ; total deaths : 707,100 or 18.24% .
Europe total cases : 54,314,804 or 30.33% ; total deaths : 1,158,526 or 29.88% .
Oceania total cases : 80,194 or 0.04% ; total deaths : 1,406 or 0.04% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both a Health chaos and an economic collapse.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 21 June 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 17 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 32 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 183 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 21 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 88 | highest : 462 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 4 | highest : 17 .
Week ending on 21 June 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 105,225 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,845 or a new infection ratio of 0.128 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,846 or 4.61 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 21 June 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 5,757,311 or 8.82 percent of the population.
New cases: 16,646 or a new infection ratio of 25.50 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 347.
Death toll: 110,767 or 1.92 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 21 June 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 3,722,327 or 4.44 percent of the population.
New cases: 6,809 or a new infection ratio of 8.13 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 551.
Death toll: 90,395 or 2.43 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 21 June 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 3,095,135 or 3.68 percent of the population.
New cases: 74,613 or a new infection ratio of 88.83 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,054.
Death toll: 82,965 or 2.68 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 21 June 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 4,252,976 or 7.03 percent of the population.
New cases: 8,104 or a new infection ratio of 13.40 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 268.
Death toll: 127,270 or 2.99 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 21 June 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 865,806 or 8.49 percent of the population.
New cases: 7,734 or a new infection ratio of 75.85 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 21.
Death toll: 17,068 or 1.97 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 21 June 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,764,651 or 8.05 percent of the population.
New cases: 22,884 or a new infection ratio of 48.94 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 172.
Death toll: 80,689 or 2.14 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 21 June 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 698,872 or 8.08 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,255 or a new infection ratio of 14.50 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 21.
Death toll: 10,270 or 1.47 of the infected cases.
Week ending on 21 June 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 4,630,040 or 6.88 percent of the population.
New cases: 56,621 or a new infection ratio of 84.09 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 72.
Death toll: 127,976 or 2.76 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 21 June 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 33,542,378 or 10.13 percent of the population.
New cases: 80,348 or a new infection ratio of 24.27 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,056.
Death toll: 601,825 or 1.79 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4