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Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 7 June 2021, World:
Death toll: 3,738,024 or 2.14 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 73,184.
Total infection cases: 174,289,049 or 2.24 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 2,971,182 or a new infection ratio of 38.11 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 7 June 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 174,289,049 or 2.24 percent of the population.
New cases: 2,971,182 or a new infection ratio of 38.11 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 73,184.
Death toll: 3,738,024 or 2.14 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 4,928,439 or 2.85% ; total deaths : 132,347 or 3.54% .
America total cases : 69,102,067 or 39.93% ; total deaths : 1,808,880 or 48.39% .
Asia total cases : 46,272,377 or 26.74% ; total deaths : 652,295 or 17.45% .
Europe total cases : 52,677,021 or 30.44% ; total deaths : 1,143,108 or 30.58% .
Oceania total cases : 77,464 or 0.04% ; total deaths : 1,394 or 0.04% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both a Health chaos and an economic collapse.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 7 June 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some interesting markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 16 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 32 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 177 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 21 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 78 | highest : 471 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 4 | highest : 17 .
Week ending on 7 June 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 103,176 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 189 or a new infection ratio of 0.013 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,846 or 4.70 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 7 June 2021, France:
Total infection cases: not available .
New cases: 46,640 or a new infection ratio of 71.45 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 596.
Death toll: 110,027 .
Week ending on 7 June 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 3,701,484 or 4.42 percent of the population.
New cases: 20,358 or a new infection ratio of 24.30 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 802.
Death toll: 89,244 or 2.41 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 7 June 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 2,966,363 or 3.53 percent of the population.
New cases: 73,145 or a new infection ratio of 87.08 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,322.
Death toll: 81,063 or 2.73 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 7 June 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 4,232,428 or 7.00 percent of the population.
New cases: 16,425 or a new infection ratio of 27.17 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 477.
Death toll: 126,523 or 2.99 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 7 June 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 853,034 or 8.37 percent of the population.
New cases: 3,941 or a new infection ratio of 38.65 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 11.
Death toll: 17,036 or 2.00 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 7 June 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,707,523 or 7.93 percent of the population.
New cases: 29,133 or a new infection ratio of 62.31 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 283.
Death toll: 80,236 or 2.16 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 7 June 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 695,256 or 8.03 percent of the population.
New cases: 3,620 or a new infection ratio of 41.83 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 22.
Death toll: 10,227 or 1.47 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 7 June 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 4,516,892 or 6.71 percent of the population.
New cases: 32,836 or a new infection ratio of 48.77 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 59.
Death toll: 127,840 or 2.83 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 7 June 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 33,362,633 or 10.08 percent of the population.
New cases: 103,062 or a new infection ratio of 31.14 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 3,197.
Death toll: 597,628 or 1.79 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
June 2021 : Week 1