areppim: information, pure and simple
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (new cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 28 June 2021, World:
Death toll: 3,933,146 or 2.16 percent of the infected cases.
New deaths: 56,486.
Total infection cases: 181,715,212 or 2.33 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 2,637,588 or a new infection ratio of 33.83 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 28 June 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 181,715,212 or 2.33 percent of the population.
New cases: 2,637,588 or a new infection ratio of 33.83 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 56,486.
Death toll: 3,933,146 or 2.16 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 5,424,876 or 2.99% ; total deaths : 141,304 or 3.59% .
America total cases : 72,395,513 or 39.84% ; total deaths : 1,900,502 or 48.32% .
Asia total cases : 49,097,968 or 27.02% ; total deaths : 723,803 or 18.40% .
Europe total cases : 54,714,915 or 30.11% ; total deaths : 1,166,120 or 29.65% .
Oceania total cases : 81,940 or 0.05% ; total deaths : 1,417 or 0.04% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and opted clearly for the first option, the economy.
They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both a Health chaos and an economic collapse.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 28 June 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some significant markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 18 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 32 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 189 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 21 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 84 | highest : 462 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 4 | highest : 17 .
Week ending on 28 June 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 103,724 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 178 or a new infection ratio of 0.012 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,846 or 4.67 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 28 June 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 5,770,021 or 8.84 percent of the population.
New cases: 12,710 or a new infection ratio of 19.47 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 230.
Death toll: 110,997 or 1.92 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 28 June 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 3,726,929 or 4.45 percent of the population.
New cases: 4,602 or a new infection ratio of 5.49 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 367.
Death toll: 90,762 or 2.44 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 28 June 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 3,157,983 or 3.76 percent of the population.
New cases: 62,848 or a new infection ratio of 74.83 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 746.
Death toll: 83,711 or 2.65 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 28 June 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 4,258,069 or 7.04 percent of the population.
New cases: 5,093 or a new infection ratio of 8.42 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 202.
Death toll: 127,472 or 2.99 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 28 June 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 875,449 or 8.59 percent of the population.
New cases: 9,643 or a new infection ratio of 94.57 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 18.
Death toll: 17,086 or 1.95 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 28 June 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 3,792,642 or 8.11 percent of the population.
New cases: 27,991 or a new infection ratio of 59.87 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 100.
Death toll: 80,789 or 2.13 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 28 June 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 699,619 or 8.08 percent of the population.
New cases: 747 or a new infection ratio of 8.63 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 19.
Death toll: 10,289 or 1.47 of the infected cases.
Week ending on 28 June 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 4,732,434 or 7.03 percent of the population.
New cases: 102,394 or a new infection ratio of 152.07 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 124.
Death toll: 128,100 or 2.71 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 28 June 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 33,625,392 or 10.16 percent of the population.
New cases: 83,014 or a new infection ratio of 25.08 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,142.
Death toll: 603,967 or 1.80 percent of the infected cases.
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4