areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 4 October 2021, World:
Death toll: 4,809,526 or 2.04 of the infected cases.
New deaths: 56,424.
Total infection cases: 235,611,189 or 3.02 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 3,130,908 or a new infection ratio of 40.16 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 4 October 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 235,611,189 or 3.02 percent of the population.
New cases: 3,130,908 or a new infection ratio of 40.16 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 56,424.
Death toll: 4,809,526 or 2.04 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 8,370,243 or 3.55% ; total deaths : 212,068 or 4.41% .
America total cases : 90,642,164 or 38.47% ; total deaths : 2,229,000 or 46.35% .
Asia total cases : 67,650,204 or 28.71% ; total deaths : 1,046,460 or 21.76% .
Europe total cases : 68,691,602 or 29.15% ; total deaths : 1,318,779 or 27.42% .
Oceania total cases : 257,003 or 0.11% ; total deaths : 3,219 or 0.07% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. Thereafter, executives indulged in a choreography of stop-and-go steps, easing the prophylactic measures as soon as the contagion rates seemed to slow down, only to reinstate stricter rules as the rates started to increase again. The inevitable result has been a protracted pandemic, aggravated by the surge of virus variants, and a prolonged economic and social suffering.
People in charge defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and allegedly opted for the first option, the economy.They took that course of action without implementing the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both an interminable health chaos and a looming economic collapse.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the year, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 4 October 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some significant markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 26 | highest : 500 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 11 | highest : 42 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 200 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 26 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 145 | highest : 462 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 5 | highest : 86 .
Week ending on 4 October 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 108,555 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 246 or a new infection ratio of 0.017 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,849 or 4.47 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 4 October 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 7,027,059 or 10.77 percent of the population.
New cases: 32,740 or a new infection ratio of 50.16 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 335.
Death toll: 116,798 or 1.66 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 4 October 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 4,255,388 or 5.08 percent of the population.
New cases: 55,988 or a new infection ratio of 66.82 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 390.
Death toll: 93,793 or 2.20 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 4 October 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 5,611,700 or 6.68 percent of the population.
New cases: 91,972 or a new infection ratio of 109.50 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,808.
Death toll: 120,880 or 2.15 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 4 October 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 4,682,034 or 7.74 percent of the population.
New cases: 21,720 or a new infection ratio of 35.92 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 334.
Death toll: 131,031 or 2.80 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 4 October 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 1,071,307 or 10.51 percent of the population.
New cases: 4,132 or a new infection ratio of 40.52 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 45.
Death toll: 18,000 or 1.68 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 4 October 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 4,965,399 or 10.62 percent of the population.
New cases: 13,759 or a new infection ratio of 29.43 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 229.
Death toll: 86,527 or 1.74 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 4 October 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 844,209 or 9.75 of the population.
New cases: 11,285 or a new infection ratio of 130.39 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 103.
Death toll: 10,721 or 1.27 of the infected cases.
Week ending on 4 October 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 7,900,680 or 11.73 percent of the population.
New cases: 236,450 or a new infection ratio of 351.16 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 785.
Death toll: 136,953 or 1.73 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 4 October 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 43,683,048 or 13.20 percent of the population.
New cases: 751,638 or a new infection ratio of 227.08 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 15,245.
Death toll: 703,278 or 1.61 percent of the infected cases.
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (new cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
June 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
July 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
August 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
September 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
October 2021 : Week 1