areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 13 March 2022, World:
Death toll: 5,994,241 or 1.34 percent of the population..
New deaths: 35,602.
Total infection cases: 448,655,859 or 5.70 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 11,844,471 or a new infection ratio of 150.41 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 13 March 2022, World:
Total infection cases: 448,655,859 or 5.70 percent of the population.
New cases: 11,844,471 or a new infection ratio of 150.41 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 35,602.
Death toll: 5,994,241 or 1.34 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 10,849,546 or 2.44% ; total deaths : 247,943 or 4.14% .
America total cases : 144,192,690 or 32.44% ; total deaths : 2,643,021 or 44.18% .
Asia total cases : 108,538,572 or 24.42% ; total deaths : 1,234,198 or 20.63% .
Europe total cases : 177,311,579 or 39.89% ; total deaths : 1,848,749 or 30.90% .
Oceania total cases : 3,650,158 or 0.82% ; total deaths : 8,492 or 0.14% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. Thereafter, executives indulged in a choreography of stop-and-go steps, easing the prophylactic measures as soon as the contagion rates seemed to slow down, only to reinstate stricter rules as the rates started to increase again. The inevitable result has been a protracted pandemic, aggravated by the surge of virus variants, and a prolonged economic and social suffering.
By late 2021, the dip in the infection curve made it look like the worst was behind us. Wrong. A new peak was reached at the end of January 22. A month later, the incidence rate had dropped, only to resume its upward march by mid-March. We don't seem to be able to get off the roller coaster.
There is also a problem with the actual number of fatalities from COVID-19. The medical journal The Lancet announced on March 10, 2022 that Although reported COVID-19 deaths between Jan 1, 2020, and Dec 31, 2021, totalled 5.94 million worldwide, we estimate that 18.2 million (95% uncertainty interval 17·1–19·6) people died worldwide because of the COVID-19 pandemic (as measured by excess mortality) over that period.
Powers that be defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and allegedly opted for the first option, the economy. In fact, it seems that they have chosen not to choose, letting themselves be led by the one who shouts louder, their real concern being not to alienate their electoral patrons. Whatever the case, they failed to implement the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both an interminable health chaos, a looming economic collapse, and the widespread alienation of the democratic vote.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the months, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 13 March 2022, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some significant markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 32 | highest : 2,589 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 12 | highest : 44 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 200 | highest : 1,606 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 26 | highest : 212 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 238 | highest : 2,589 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 8 | highest : 2,095 .
Week ending on 13 March 2022, China:
Total infection cases: 376,411 or 0.03 percent of the population.
New cases: 58,755 or a new infection ratio of 4.08 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,986.
Death toll: 8,629 or 2.29 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 13 March 2022, France:
Total infection cases: 23,495,797 or 34.90 percent of the population.
New cases: 440,416 or a new infection ratio of 654.21 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 868.
Death toll: 153,824 or 0.65 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 13 March 2022, Germany:
Total infection cases: 17,298,064 or 20.80 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,346,364 or a new infection ratio of 1,618.87 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 215.
Death toll: 125,856 or 0.73 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 13 March 2022, Iran:
Total infection cases: 7,123,093 or 8.48 percent of the population.
New cases: 49,346 or a new infection ratio of 58.75 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,510.
Death toll: 138,949 or 1.95 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 13 March 2022, Italy:
Total infection cases: 13,222,536 or 22.17 percent of the population.
New cases: 252,076 or a new infection ratio of 422.65 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 981.
Death toll: 156,868 or 1.19 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 13 March 2022, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 3,417,634 or 33.19 percent of the population.
New cases: 79,925 or a new infection ratio of 776.28 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 140.
Death toll: 21,357 or 0.62 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 13 March 2022, Spain:
Total infection cases: 11,237,187 or 23.74 percent of the population.
New cases: 93,987 or a new infection ratio of 198.57 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 209.
Death toll: 101,023 or 0.90 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 13 March 2022, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 3,141,882 or 36.51 of the population.
New cases: 206,441 or a new infection ratio of 2,398.79 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 137.
Death toll: 12,863 or 0.41 of the infected cases.
Week ending on 13 March 2022, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 19,767,359 or 29.04 percent of the population.
New cases: 522,058 or a new infection ratio of 767.06 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 932.
Death toll: 163,079 or 0.82 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 13 March 2022, USA:
Total infection cases: 79,562,252 or 24.04 percent of the population.
New cases: 223,050 or a new infection ratio of 67.39 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 4,794.
Death toll: 965,105 or 1.21 percent of the infected cases.
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (new cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
June 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
July 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
August 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
September 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
October 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
November 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
December 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 (ECDC data not issued)
January 2022 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 4 Week 5