areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 27 February 2022, World:
Death toll: 5,909,583 or 1.39 of the infected cases.
New deaths: 59,126.
Total infection cases: 426,359,835 or 5.41 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 10,731,663 or a new infection ratio of 136.28 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 27 February 2022, World:
Total infection cases: 426,359,835 or 5.41 percent of the population.
New cases: 10,731,663 or a new infection ratio of 136.28 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 59,126.
Death toll: 5,909,583 or 1.39 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 10,648,985 or 2.52% ; total deaths : 245,465 or 4.16% .
America total cases : 142,406,883 or 33.73% ; total deaths : 2,613,701 or 44.31% .
Asia total cases : 99,022,855 or 23.45% ; total deaths : 1,217,800 or 20.65% .
Europe total cases : 167,180,267 or 39.59% ; total deaths : 1,813,545 or 30.75% .
Oceania total cases : 2,985,303 or 0.71% ; total deaths : 7,967 or 0.14% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. Thereafter, executives indulged in a choreography of stop-and-go steps, easing the prophylactic measures as soon as the contagion rates seemed to slow down, only to reinstate stricter rules as the rates started to increase again. The inevitable result has been a protracted pandemic, aggravated by the surge of virus variants, and a prolonged economic and social suffering.
Powers that be defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and allegedly opted for the first option, the economy. In fact, it seems that they have chosen not to choose, letting themselves be led by the one who shouts louder, their real concern being not to alienate their electoral patrons. Whatever the case, they failed to implement the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both an interminable health chaos, a looming economic collapse, and the widespread alienation of the democratic vote.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the months, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 27 February 2022, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some significant markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 31 | highest : 2,588 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 12 | highest : 44 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 200 | highest : 1,606 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 25 | highest : 184 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 236 | highest : 2,588 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 7 | highest : 2,095 .
Week ending on 27 February 2022, China:
Total infection cases: 178,258 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 47,860 or a new infection ratio of 3.33 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 371.
Death toll: 5,295 or 2.97 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 27 February 2022, France:
Total infection cases: 22,690,070 or 33.70 percent of the population.
New cases: 411,739 or a new infection ratio of 611.61 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,457.
Death toll: 151,786 or 0.67 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 27 February 2022, Germany:
Total infection cases: 14,740,144 or 17.72 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,065,107 or a new infection ratio of 1,280.69 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 288.
Death toll: 123,209 or 0.84 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 27 February 2022, Iran:
Total infection cases: 7,040,467 or 8.38 percent of the population.
New cases: 98,015 or a new infection ratio of 116.69 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,591.
Death toll: 136,631 or 1.94 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 27 February 2022, Italy:
Total infection cases: 12,602,813 or 21.13 percent of the population.
New cases: 194,623 or a new infection ratio of 326.32 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,571.
Death toll: 154,560 or 1.23 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 27 February 2022, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 3,262,492 or 31.69 percent of the population.
New cases: 69,381 or a new infection ratio of 673.87 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 196.
Death toll: 21,059 or 0.65 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 27 February 2022, Spain:
Total infection cases: 10,998,312 or 23.24 percent of the population.
New cases: 104,276 or a new infection ratio of 220.30 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 326.
Death toll: 99,287 or 0.90 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 27 February 2022, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 2,789,871 or 32.42 of the population.
New cases: 136,940 or a new infection ratio of 1,591.21 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 99.
Death toll: 12,651 or 0.45 of the infected cases.
Week ending on 27 February 2022, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 18,886,701 or 27.75 percent of the population.
New cases: 280,949 or a new infection ratio of 412.80 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 780.
Death toll: 161,361 or 0.85 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 27 February 2022, USA:
Total infection cases: 79,045,043 or 23.88 percent of the population.
New cases: 515,551 or a new infection ratio of 155.75 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 14,499.
Death toll: 950,490 or 1.20 percent of the infected cases.
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (new cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
June 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
July 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
August 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
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October 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
November 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
December 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 (ECDC data not issued)