areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 6 February 2022, World:
Death toll: 5,690,023 or 1.48 of the infected cases.
New deaths: 69,882.
Total infection cases: 384,965,564 or 4.89 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 17,574,070 or a new infection ratio of 223.16 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 6 February 2022, World:
Total infection cases: 384,965,564 or 4.89 percent of the population.
New cases: 17,574,070 or a new infection ratio of 223.16 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 69,882.
Death toll: 5,690,023 or 1.48 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 10,395,931 or 2.73% ; total deaths : 238,233 or 4.20% .
America total cases : 135,413,780 or 35.55% ; total deaths : 2,522,560 or 44.42% .
Asia total cases : 88,191,945 or 23.16% ; total deaths : 1,182,027 or 20.82% .
Europe total cases : 144,506,779 or 37.94% ; total deaths : 1,728,924 or 30.45% .
Oceania total cases : 2,356,399 or 0.62% ; total deaths : 6,797 or 0.12% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. Thereafter, executives indulged in a choreography of stop-and-go steps, easing the prophylactic measures as soon as the contagion rates seemed to slow down, only to reinstate stricter rules as the rates started to increase again. The inevitable result has been a protracted pandemic, aggravated by the surge of virus variants, and a prolonged economic and social suffering.
Powers that be defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and allegedly opted for the first option, the economy. In fact, it seems that they have chosen not to choose, letting themselves be led by the one who shouts louder, their real concern being not to alienate their electoral patrons. Whatever the case, they failed to implement the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both an interminable health chaos, a looming economic collapse, and the widespread alienation of the democratic vote.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the months, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 6 February 2022, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some significant markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 29 | highest : 2,562 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 11 | highest : 44 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 199 | highest : 1,606 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 24 | highest : 179 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 234 | highest : 2,562 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 7 | highest : 2,096 .
Week ending on 6 February 2022, China:
Total infection cases: 121,163 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,332 or a new infection ratio of 0.09 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,849 or 4.00 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 6 February 2022, France:
Total infection cases: 20,665,610 or 30.70 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,764,735 or a new infection ratio of 2,621.40 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,067.
Death toll: 136,909 or 0.66 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 6 February 2022, Germany:
Total infection cases: 11,169,758 or 13.43 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,235,924 or a new infection ratio of 1,486.08 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 478.
Death toll: 118,938 or 1.06 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 6 February 2022, Iran:
Total infection cases: 6,579,266 or 7.83 percent of the population.
New cases: 235,087 or a new infection ratio of 279.89 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 406.
Death toll: 132,830 or 2.02 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 6 February 2022, Italy:
Total infection cases: 11,331,798 or 19.00 percent of the population.
New cases: 480,869 or a new infection ratio of 806.27 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 2,622.
Death toll: 148,771 or 1.31 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 6 February 2022, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 2,932,881 or 28.49 percent of the population.
New cases: 293,135 or a new infection ratio of 2,847.10 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 350.
Death toll: 20,264 or 0.69 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 6 February 2022, Spain:
Total infection cases: 10,389,538 or 21.95 percent of the population.
New cases: 336,521 or a new infection ratio of 710.97 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 619.
Death toll: 94,442 or 0.91 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 6 February 2022, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 2,423,270 or 28.16 of the population.
New cases: 211,814 or a new infection ratio of 2,461.23 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 104.
Death toll: 12,389 or 0.51 of the infected cases.
Week ending on 6 February 2022, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 17,803,325 or 26.16 percent of the population.
New cases: 428,248 or a new infection ratio of 629.22 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,474.
Death toll: 158,318 or 0.89 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 6 February 2022, USA:
Total infection cases: 76,505,442 or 23.11 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,566,675 or a new infection ratio of 473.31 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 15,956.
Death toll: 902,624 or 1.18 percent of the infected cases.
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (new cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
June 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
July 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
August 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
September 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
October 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
November 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
December 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 (ECDC data not issued)
January 2022 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 4 Week 5
February 2022 : Week 1