areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 12 December 2021, World:
Death toll: 5,315,891 or 1.97 of the infected cases.
New deaths: 50,855.
Total infection cases: 270,326,572 or 3.43 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 4,252,370 or a new infection ratio of 54.00 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 12 December 2021, World:
Total infection cases: 270,326,572 or 3.43 percent of the population.
New cases: 4,252,370 or a new infection ratio of 54.00 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 50,855.
Death toll: 5,315,891 or 1.97 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 8,982,687 or 3.32% ; total deaths : 224,869 or 4.23% .
America total cases : 98,970,003 or 36.61% ; total deaths : 2,379,391 or 44.76% .
Asia total cases : 72,229,915 or 26.72% ; total deaths : 1,129,745 or 21.25% .
Europe total cases : 89,731,588 or 33.19% ; total deaths : 1,577,251 or 29.67% .
Oceania total cases : 412,379 or 0.15% ; total deaths : 4,635 or 0.09% .
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. Thereafter, executives indulged in a choreography of stop-and-go steps, easing the prophylactic measures as soon as the contagion rates seemed to slow down, only to reinstate stricter rules as the rates started to increase again. The inevitable result has been a protracted pandemic, aggravated by the surge of virus variants, and a prolonged economic and social suffering.
Powers that be defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and allegedly opted for the first option, the economy. In fact, it seems that they have chosen not to choose, letting themselves be led by the one who shouts louder, their real concern being not to alienate their electoral patrons. Whatever the case, they failed to implement the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both an interminable health chaos, a looming economic collapse, and the widespread alienation of the democratic vote.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the months, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 12 December 2021, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some significant markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 27 | highest : 646 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 10 | highest : 42 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 192 | highest : 500 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 23 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 222 | highest : 646 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 6 | highest : 96 .
Week ending on 12 December 2021, China:
Total infection cases: 112,345 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 607 or a new infection ratio of 0.042 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,849 or 4.32 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 December 2021, France:
Total infection cases: 8,220,099 or 12.21 percent of the population.
New cases: 337,839 or a new infection ratio of 501.84 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 909.
Death toll: 124,474 or 1.51 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 December 2021, Germany:
Total infection cases: 6,542,964 or 7.87 percent of the population.
New cases: 334,739 or a new infection ratio of 402.49 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 2,633.
Death toll: 105,754 or 1.62 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 December 2021, Iran:
Total infection cases: 6,154,813 or 7.33 percent of the population.
New cases: 20,348 or a new infection ratio of 24.23 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 522.
Death toll: 130,722 or 2.12 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 December 2021, Italy:
Total infection cases: 5,210,901 or 8.74 percent of the population.
New cases: 77,737 or a new infection ratio of 130.34 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 452.
Death toll: 135,405 or 2.60 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 December 2021, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 1,196,576 or 11.62 percent of the population.
New cases: 27,596 or a new infection ratio of 268.03 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 120.
Death toll: 18,672 or 1.56 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 December 2021, Spain:
Total infection cases: 5,338,820 or 11.28 percent of the population.
New cases: 92,125 or a new infection ratio of 194.63 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 160.
Death toll: 88,480 or 1.66 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 December 2021, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 1,135,345 or 13.19 of the population.
New cases: 71,879 or a new infection ratio of 835.22 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 249.
Death toll: 11,450 or 1.01 of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 December 2021, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 10,819,515 or 15.90 percent of the population.
New cases: 355,126 or a new infection ratio of 521.78 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 834.
Death toll: 146,439 or 1.35 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 12 December 2021, USA:
Total infection cases: 49,921,405 or 15.08 percent of the population.
New cases: 836,022 or a new infection ratio of 252.57 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 8,982.
Death toll: 797,346 or 1.60 percent of the infected cases.
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (new cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
June 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
July 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
August 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
September 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
October 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5