areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from ECDC (EU's European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Week ending on 9 January 2022, World:
Death toll: 5,427,885 or 1.83 of the infected cases.
New deaths: 39,553.
Total infection cases: 297,372,385 or 3.78 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 16,207,036 or a new infection ratio of 205.80 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Week ending on 9 January 2022, World:
Total infection cases: 297,372,385 or 3.78 percent of the population.
New cases: 16,207,036 or a new infection ratio of 205.80 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 39,553.
Death toll: 5,427,885 or 1.83 percent of the infected cases.
By continent:
Africa total cases : 9,554,514 or 3.26% ; total deaths : 228,463 or 4.22%
America total cases : 106,617,085 or 36.33% ; total deaths : 2,405,673 or 44.42%
Asia total cases : 74,113,423 or 25.26% ; total deaths : 1,141,789 or 21.08%
Europe total cases : 102,289,337 or 34.86% ; total deaths : 1,635,392 or 30.19%
Oceania total cases : 862,462 or 0.29% ; total deaths : 4,802 or 0.09%
The pandemic containment, partially achieved after the administrations enforced anti-contagion measures upon the pandemic declaration by the World Health Organization in March 2020, gave way to a generalized surge of the infection with the arrival of the summer season. Thereafter, executives indulged in a choreography of stop-and-go steps, easing the prophylactic measures as soon as the contagion rates seemed to slow down, only to reinstate stricter rules as the rates started to increase again. The inevitable result has been a protracted pandemic, aggravated by the surge of virus variants, and a prolonged economic and social suffering.
Powers that be defined their dilemma as a choice between saving the economy, or saving the public health, and allegedly opted for the first option, the economy. In fact, it seems that they have chosen not to choose, letting themselves be led by the one who shouts louder, their real concern being not to alienate their electoral patrons. Whatever the case, they failed to implement the specific instruments and tools to trace the disease, test the suspected cases, quarantinize and take care of the positive ones, while ensuring that people in need without a remunerated job would get a minimum income, and citizens could go about their business enjoying safe transportation, safe shopping, and safe work conditions. The responsible agencies should have reconfigured or provided such facilities, in the absence of which the pandemic couldn’t but enjoy a new boom. The net result has been both an interminable health chaos, a looming economic collapse, and the widespread alienation of the democratic vote.
Our forecasts show that the pandemic will spread further along the months, although it will fade out eventually. The question is when will this happen. Equally important, what will be the final price to pay for the incompetence of those in power. It is highly likely that the latter will have sacrificed public health on the altar of the economy, without achieving anything but another mega economic crisis, leaving behind a trail of several million fatalities, and of scores of millions of convalescents in a more or less pitiful shape. Quite a repulsing and contemptible record!
Week ending on 9 January 2022, these are the 25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. The 14-day notification rate of new Covid-19 cases is one of the main indicators used by ECDC to build its recommendations. Some significant markers:
World 14-day notification rate — median : 28 | highest : 815 .
Africa 14-day notification rate — median : 11 | highest : 44 .
America 14-day notification rate — median : 193 | highest : 521 .
Asia 14-day notification rate — median : 23 | highest : 147 .
Europe 14-day notification rate — median : 223 | highest : 815 .
Oceania 14-day notification rate — median : 7 | highest : 597 .
Week ending on 9 January 2022, China:
Total infection cases: 116,641 or 0.01 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,232 or a new infection ratio of 0.086 people.
New deaths: 0.
Death toll: 4,849 or 4.16 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 9 January 2022, France:
Total infection cases: 11,951,164 or 17.75 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,708,142 or a new infection ratio of 2,537.34 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 1,493.
Death toll: 129,560 or 1.08 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 9 January 2022, Germany:
Total infection cases: 7,550,747 or 9.08 percent of the population.
New cases: 327,478 or a new infection ratio of 393.76 per 100,000 people-->.
New deaths: 1,806.
Death toll: 114,029 or 1.51 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 9 January 2022, Iran:
Total infection cases: 6,208,337 or 7.39 percent of the population.
New cases: 11,424 or a new infection ratio of 13.60 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 235.
Death toll: 131,915 or 2.12 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 9 January 2022, Italy:
Total infection cases: 7,091,113 or 11.89 percent of the population.
New cases: 660,057 or a new infection ratio of 1,106.71 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,392.
Death toll: 139,038 or 1.96 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 9 January 2022, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 1,659,994 or 16.12 percent of the population.
New cases: 225,423 or a new infection ratio of 2,189.44 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 130.
Death toll: 19,134 or 1.15 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 9 January 2022, Spain:
Total infection cases: 7,456,513 or 15.75 percent of the population.
New cases: 690,129 or a new infection ratio of 1,458.04 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 369.
Death toll: 90,131 or 1.21 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 9 January 2022, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 1,546,840 or 17.97 of the population.
New cases: 175,802 or a new infection ratio of 2,042.78 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 109.
Death toll: 12,031 or 0.78 of the infected cases.
Week ending on 9 January 2022, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 14,617,314 or 21.48 percent of the population.
New cases: 1,381,913 or a new infection ratio of 2,030.44 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 1,379.
Death toll: 150,230 or 1.03 percent of the infected cases.
Week ending on 9 January 2022, USA:
Total infection cases: 59,521,277 or 17.98 percent of the population.
New cases: 4,407,149 or a new infection ratio of 1,331.45 per 100,000 people.
New deaths: 8,012.
Death toll: 834,077 or 1.40 percent of the infected cases.
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (new cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
June 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
July 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
August 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
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October 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
November 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
December 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 (ECDC data not issued)