COVID-19, the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic

COVID-19 Pandemic Situation Report
as at 18 December 2022 2022

Actual data from WHO (World Health Organization), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:

Note ECDC discontinued the data collection and publication of the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide, as of 20 June 2022. Thereafter, we reverted to WHO data series to pursue our monitoring of the poandemic. This change of source may render historical comparisons hazardous.

World: total deaths

World: total deaths
Situation as of 19 December 2022, World:
   Death toll: 6,645,812 or 1.02 percent of the infected cases.
   New reported deaths: 9,193.
   Total infection cases: 649,038,437 or 8.16 percent of the population.
   New infection cases: 3,264,738 or a new infection ratio of 41.05 per 100,000 people.

How many fatalities did Covid-19 actually cause? Official WHO data says close to 7 million at the present date. But a recently published WHO study estimates 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period 2020-2021.

Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC and by WHO. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.

World: total infection cases

World: total cases

Situation as of 19 December 2022, World:
   Total infection cases: 649,038,437 or 8.16 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 3,264,738 or a new infection ratio of 41.05 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 9,193.
   Death toll: 6,645,812 or 1.02 percent of the infected cases.

Covid-19 Situation by WHO Region
As of 19 December 2022
Region	Nbr	Percent	Nbr	Percent	Nbr
	Total cases		Total deaths		Total vaccine doses per 100 population
Africa	9,431,508	1.5%	175,075	2.6%	45.47
Americas	184,161,028	28.4%	2,880,899	43.3%	202.3
Eastern Mediterranean	23,214,189	3.6%	349,015	5.3%	115.43
Europe	268,252,496	41.3%	2,147,776	32.3%	180.47
South-East Asia	60,719,433	9.4%	802,806	12.1%	162.67
Western Pacific	103,259,019	15.9%	290,228	4.4%	234.84
Global	649,038,437	100.0%	6,645,812	100.0%	166.89
Source : WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard retrieved on 19 December 2022 2022.

The pandemic drive is losing steam after two years of havoc, since the World Health Organization (WHO) issued its official coming-into-being statement in March 2020. Although the current statistical data retrieved from the WHO looks somewhat erratic and filled with gaps, our forecasts point towards a loss of momentum and, hopefully, the closing of the pandemic cycle in the foreseeable future.

Historians will endeavor to sort out in due course the real low-down of this episode with its gloomy implications – in excess of 600 million sick people and close to 7 million fatalities, not to mention the dire social and economic consequences. We will also have to learn from its grotesque contours. The disorder created by the health authorities during the first year of the disease; the ridiculous pose of political leaders, including Trump, Boris Johnson, Bolsonaro, Macron; or the total inability of the authorities to harmonize their action at the international level, notwithstanding the much-vaunted capabilities of the international coordination organizations.

Covid-19 7-day cumulative cases

Source: WHO, retrieved on 19 December 2022.

25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates

China total cases

China: total cases
Situation as of 18 December 2022, China:
   Total infection cases: 10,051,042 or 0.69 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 21,262 or a new infection ratio of 1.47 percent per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 66.
   Death toll: 31,235 or 0.31 percent of the infected cases.

France total cases

France: total cases
Situation as of 18 December 2022, France:
   Total infection cases: 37,716,837 or 57.51 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 156,731 or 0.42 percent of the infected cases.

Germany total cases

Germany: total cases
Situation as of 18 December 2022, Germany:
   Total infection cases: 36,980,883 or 44.09 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 159,884 or 0.43 of the infected cases.

Iran total cases

Iran: total cases
Situation as of 18 December 2022, Iran:
   Total infection cases: 7,560,323 or 8.79 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 144,659 or 1.91 percent of the infected cases.

Italy total cases

Italy: total cases
Situation as of 18 December 2022, Italy:
   Total infection cases: 24,884,034 or 41.29 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 183,138 or 0.74 percent of the infected cases.

Portugal total cases

Portugal: total cases
Situation as of 18 December 2022, Portugal:
   Total infection cases: 5,536,455 or 54.60 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 25,345 or 0.46 percent of the infected cases.

Spain total cases

Spain: total cases
Situation as of 18 December 2022, Spain:
   Total infection cases: 13,651,239 or 29.22 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 116,658 or 0.85 percent of the infected cases.

Switzerland total cases

Switzerland: total cases
Situation as of 18 December 2022, Switzerland:
   Total infection cases: 4,351,866 or 49.60 of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 13,781 or 0.32 of the infected cases.

United Kingdom total cases

United Kingdom: total cases
Situation as of 18 December 2022, United Kingdom:
   Total infection cases: 24,089,042 or 35.17 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 198,271 or 0.82 percent of the infected cases.

United States total cases

United States: total cases
Situation as of 18 December 2022, USA:
   Total infection cases: 98,525,870 or 29.43 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 1,077,129 or 1.09 percent of the infected cases.

To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:

COVID-19 significant thresholds
	LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH	LEVEL 3 HIGH	LEVEL 2 MODERATE	LEVEL 1 LOW
Incidence Rate (New reported cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population)	More than 500	100-500	50-99	Fewer than 50

Covid-19 Reporting Schedule

ECDC, our source for the pandemic data, switched to a weekly reporting schedule from 17 December 2020. We at areppim will adhere to ECDC's schedule and publish our situation reports every Thursday.

Previous reports available :

March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31