areppim: information, pure and simple
Actual data from WHO (World Health Organization), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:
| World total deaths | World total cases | 14-day cumulative notifications | China total cases | France total cases | Germany total cases | Iran total cases | Italy total cases | Portugal total cases | Spain total cases | Switzerland total cases | United Kingdom total cases | United States total cases |
Situation as of 19 September 2022, World:
Death toll: 6,503,894 or 1.07 percent of the infected cases.
New reported deaths: 8,163.
Total infection cases: 609,247,113 or 7.66 percent of the population.
New infection cases: 2,884,996 or a new infection ratio of 36.27 per 100,000 people.
Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC and by WHO. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.
Situation as of 19 September 2022, World:
Total infection cases: 609,247,113 or 7.66 percent of the population.
New reported cases: 2,884,996 or a new infection ratio of 36.27 per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 8,163.
Death toll: 6,503,894 or 1.07 percent of the infected cases.
| Total cases | Total deaths | Total vaccine doses per 100 population | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Region | Nbr | Percent | Nbr | Percent | Nbr |
| Africa | 9,317,877 | 1.5% | 174,454 | 2.7% | 39.3 |
| Americas | 177,229,295 | 29.1% | 2,828,222 | 43.5% | 192.75 |
| Eastern Mediterranean | 23,051,847 | 3.8% | 348,186 | 5.4% | 112.34 |
| Europe | 251,165,792 | 41.2% | 2,088,112 | 32.1% | 174.76 |
| South-East Asia | 60,200,102 | 9.9% | 796,924 | 12.3% | 158.25 |
| Western Pacific | 88,281,436 | 14.5% | 267,983 | 4.1% | 231.63 |
| Global | 609,247,113 | 100.0% | 6,503,894 | 100.0% | 161.82 |
| Source : WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard retrieved on 19 September 2022. | |||||
The pandemic drive is losing steam after two years of havoc, since the World Health Organization (WHO) issued its official coming-into-being statement in March 2020. Although the current statistical data retrieved from the WHO looks somewhat erratic and filled with gaps, our forecasts point towards a loss of momentum and, hopefully, the closing of the pandemic cycle in the foreseeable future.
Historians will endeavor to sort out in due course the real low-down of this episode with its tragic implications – in excess of 600 million sick people and of 7 million fatalities, not to mention the dire social and economic consequences. We will also have to learn from its grotesque contours. The disorder created by the health authorities during the first year of the disease; the ridiculous pose of political leaders, including Trump, Boris Johnson, Bolsonaro, Macron; or the total inability of the authorities to harmonize their action at the international level, notwithstanding the much-vaunted capabilities of the international coordination organizations.
Source: WHO, retrieved on 19 September 2022.
Situation as of 18 September 2022, China:
Total infection cases: 7,112,069 or 0.49 percent of the population.
New reported cases: 41,668 or a new infection ratio of 2.88 percent per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 82.
Death toll: 25,635 or 0.36 percent of the infected cases.
Situation as of 18 September 2022, France:
Total infection cases: 33,852,949 or 51.62 percent of the population.
New reported cases: 23,137 or a new infection ratio of 35.28 per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 0.
Death toll: 151,117 or 0.45 percent of the infected cases.
Situation as of 18 September 2022, Germany:
Total infection cases: 32,680,356 or 38.96 percent of the population.
New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 0.
Death toll: 148,933 or 0.46 of the infected cases.
Situation as of 18 September 2022, Iran:
Total infection cases: 7,542,230 or 8.77 percent of the population.
New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 0.
Death toll: 144,273 or 1.91 percent of the infected cases.
Situation as of 18 September 2022, Italy:
Total infection cases: 22,148,935 or 36.75 percent of the population.
New reported cases: 17,150 or a new infection ratio of 28.46 per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 38.
Death toll: 176,546 or 0.80 percent of the infected cases.
Situation as of 18 September 2022, Portugal:
Total infection cases: 5,454,001 or 53.78 percent of the population.
New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 8.
Death toll: 24,947 or 0.46 percent of the infected cases.
Situation as of 18 September 2022, Spain:
Total infection cases: 13,384,876 or 28.65 percent of the population.
New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 0.
Death toll: 113,725 or 0.85 percent of the infected cases.
Situation as of 18 September 2022, Switzerland:
Total infection cases: 4,053,997 or 46.21 of the population.
New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 0.
Death toll: 13,550 or 0.33 of the infected cases.
Situation as of 18 September 2022, United Kingdom:
Total infection cases: 23,585,309 or 34.43 percent of the population.
New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 0.
Death toll: 189,484 or 0.80 percent of the infected cases.
Situation as of 18 September 2022, USA:
Total infection cases: 94,237,260 or 28.15 percent of the population.
New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
New reported deaths: 0.
Death toll: 1,041,323 or 1.11 percent of the infected cases.
To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:
| LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH | LEVEL 3 HIGH | LEVEL 2 MODERATE | LEVEL 1 LOW | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence Rate (New reported cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population) | More than 500 | 100-500 | 50-99 | Fewer than 50 |
Previous reports available :
March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
April 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
May 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
June 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
July 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
August 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
September 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
October 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
November 2020 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
December 2020 : 1 7 10 13 17 23 30
January 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
February 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
April 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
May 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
June 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
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August 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
September 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
October 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
November 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
December 2021 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 (ECDC data not issued)
January 2022 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
February 2022 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
March 2022 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
April 2022 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4 Week 5
May 2022 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4
June 2022 : Week 1 Week 2 Week 3
July 2022 : 2022-07-08 2022-07-17 2022-07-24 2022-07-31
August 2022 : 2022-08-07 2022-08-14 2022-08-21 2022-08-28
September 2022 : 2022-09-04 2022-09-11 2022-09-18