COVID-19 Pandemic Situation Report
as at 16 April 2023

Actual data from WHO (World Health Organization), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:

World: total deaths

How many fatalities did Covid-19 actually cause? Official WHO data says close to 7 million at the present date. But a recently published WHO study estimates 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period 2020-2021.

Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC and by WHO. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.

World: total infection cases

World: total cases — Situation as of 16 April 2023, World:
   Total infection cases: 763,740,140 or 9.51 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 427,695 or a new infection ratio of 5.33 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 1,771.
   Death toll: 6,908,554 or 0.90 percent of the infected cases.

Covid-19 Situation by WHO Region
As of 19 April 2023
Region	Nbr	Percent	Nbr	Percent	Nbr
	Total cases		Total deaths		Total vaccine doses per 100 population
Africa	9,521,338	1.2%	175,341	2.5%	52.37
Americas	202,363,232	26.5%	409,869	5.9%	239.81
Eastern Mediterranean	23,339,577	3.1%	350,726	5.1%	121.48
Europe	275,573,444	36.1%	2,224,387	32.2%	183.54
South-East Asia	60,942,655	8.0%	804,500	11.6%	164.23
Americas	191,999,130	25.1%	2,943,718	42.6%	207.17
Global	763,740,140	100.0%	6,908,554	100.0%	171.12
Source : WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard retrieved on 19 April 2023.

The pandemic drive is losing steam after two years of havoc, since the World Health Organization (WHO) issued its official coming-into-being statement in March 2020. Although the WHO sourced data suggests a slowdown, our forecasts regretfully say that may not be exactly the case. The number of cases and of Covid-related fatalities may still grow significantly in the course of the next months. The game is not over yet.

Historians will endeavor to sort out in due course the real low-down of this episode with its gloomy implications – in excess of 600 million sick people and close to 7 million fatalities, not to mention the dire social and economic consequences. We will also have to learn from its grotesque contours. The disorder created by the health authorities during the first year of the disease; the ridiculous pose of political leaders, including Trump, Boris Johnson, Bolsonaro, Macron; or the total inability of the authorities to harmonize their action at the international level, notwithstanding the much-vaunted capabilities of the international coordination organizations.

Covid-19 7-day cumulative cases

25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates. Source: WHO, retrieved on 19 April 2022.

Situation in 12 selected countries :

China total cases

France total cases

Germany total cases

Iran total cases

Italy total cases

Portugal total cases

Spain total cases

Switzerland total cases

United Kingdom total cases

United States total cases

To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:

COVID-19 significant thresholds
	LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH	LEVEL 3 HIGH	LEVEL 2 MODERATE	LEVEL 1 LOW
Incidence Rate (New reported cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population)	More than 500	100-500	50-99	Fewer than 50

Note ECDC has been areppim's provider of data on the pandemic until 20 June 2022, when it discontinued the data collection and publication of the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide. Thereafter, we reverted to WHO data series to pursue our monitoring of the poandemic. This change of source may render historical comparisons hazardous.
Starting from the week of 20 February 2023, the dashboard is updated by WHO once per week on Wednesdays.

Previous reports available :

March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31