COVID-19, the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic

COVID-19 Pandemic Situation Report
as at 19 February 2023 2022

Actual data from WHO (World Health Organization), and areppim S-curve projections for selected countries:

Note ECDC discontinued the data collection and publication of the number of COVID-19 cases and deaths worldwide, as of 20 June 2022. Thereafter, we reverted to WHO data series to pursue our monitoring of the poandemic. This change of source may render historical comparisons hazardous.

World: total deaths

World: total deaths
Situation as of 21 February 2023, World:
   Death toll: 6,850,594 or 0.9 percent of the infected cases.
   New reported deaths: 7,778.
   Total infection cases: 757,264,511 or 9.43 percent of the population.
   New infection cases: 1,048,235 or a new infection ratio of 13.05 per 100,000 people.

How many fatalities did Covid-19 actually cause? Official WHO data says close to 7 million at the present date. But a recently published WHO study estimates 14.83 million excess deaths globally, 2.74 times more deaths than the 5.42 million reported as due to COVID-19 for the period 2020-2021.

Our projection is obtained by a logistic regression based on the actual numbers provided by ECDC and by WHO. In those cases where significant bumps in the time series suggest a definite change of direction, we fitted the regression curve by means of a multi-logistic function.

World: total infection cases

World: total cases

Situation as of 21 February 2023, World:
   Total infection cases: 757,264,511 or 9.43 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 1,048,235 or a new infection ratio of 13.05 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 7,778.
   Death toll: 6,850,594 or 0.9 percent of the infected cases.

Covid-19 Situation by WHO Region
As of 21 February 2023
Region	Nbr	Percent	Nbr	Percent	Nbr
	Total cases		Total deaths		Total vaccine doses per 100 population
Africa	9,494,590	1.3%	175,289	2.6%	49.79
Americas	200,972,740	26.5%	404,149	5.9%	236.58
Eastern Mediterranean	23,254,667	3.1%	349,480	5.1%	119.4
Europe	272,814,122	36.0%	2,190,646	32.0%	183.17
South-East Asia	60,764,162	8.0%	803,809	11.7%	163.95
Americas	189,963,466	25.1%	2,927,208	42.7%	205.31
Global	757,264,511	100.0%	6,850,594	100.0%	169.37
Source : WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard retrieved on 21 February 2023.

The pandemic drive is losing steam after two years of havoc, since the World Health Organization (WHO) issued its official coming-into-being statement in March 2020. Although the WHO sourced data suggests a slowdown, our forecasts regretfully say that may not be exactly the case. The number of cases and of Covid-related fatalities may still grow significantly in the course of the next months. The game is not over yet.

Historians will endeavor to sort out in due course the real low-down of this episode with its gloomy implications – in excess of 600 million sick people and close to 7 million fatalities, not to mention the dire social and economic consequences. We will also have to learn from its grotesque contours. The disorder created by the health authorities during the first year of the disease; the ridiculous pose of political leaders, including Trump, Boris Johnson, Bolsonaro, Macron; or the total inability of the authorities to harmonize their action at the international level, notwithstanding the much-vaunted capabilities of the international coordination organizations.

Covid-19 7-day cumulative cases

Source: WHO, retrieved on 21 February 2023.

25 countries with the world highest 14-day case notification rates

China total cases

China: total cases
Situation as of 19 February 2023, China:
   Total infection cases: 98,904,475 or 6.81 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 30,778 or a new infection ratio of 2.12 percent per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 7.
   Death toll: 119,260 or 0.12 percent of the infected cases.

France total cases

France: total cases
Situation as of 19 February 2023, France:
   Total infection cases: 38,483,146 or 58.53 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 4,236 or a new infection ratio of 6.44 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 16.
   Death toll: 161,052 or 0.42 percent of the infected cases.

Germany total cases

Germany: total cases
Situation as of 19 February 2023, Germany:
   Total infection cases: 38,006,559 or 45.37 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 1,330 or a new infection ratio of 1.59 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 167,370 or 0.44 of the infected cases.

Iran total cases

Iran: total cases
Situation as of 19 February 2023, Iran:
   Total infection cases: 7,566,436 or 8.70 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 46 or a new infection ratio of 0.05 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 4.
   Death toll: 144,797 or 1.91 percent of the infected cases.

Italy total cases

Italy: total cases
Situation as of 19 February 2023, Italy:
   Total infection cases: 25,547,414 or 42.47 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 187,850 or 0.74 percent of the infected cases.

Portugal total cases

Portugal: total cases
Situation as of 19 February 2023, Portugal:
   Total infection cases: 5,566,708 or 55.04 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 26,117 or 0.47 percent of the infected cases.

Spain total cases

Spain: total cases
Situation as of 19 February 2023, Spain:
   Total infection cases: 13,755,956 or 29.47 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 7,038 or a new infection ratio of 15.08 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 210.
   Death toll: 119,186 or 0.87 percent of the infected cases.

Switzerland total cases

Switzerland: total cases
Situation as of 19 February 2023, Switzerland:
   Total infection cases: 4,388,441 or 49.70 of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 13,929 or 0.32 of the infected cases.

United Kingdom total cases

United Kingdom: total cases
Situation as of 19 February 2023, United Kingdom:
   Total infection cases: 24,341,615 or 35.40 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 206,246 or 0.85 percent of the infected cases.

United States total cases

United States: total cases
Situation as of 19 February 2023, USA:
   Total infection cases: 101,752,396 or 30.22 percent of the population.
   New reported cases: 0 or a new infection ratio of 0 per 100,000 people.
   New reported deaths: 0.
   Death toll: 1,106,783 or 1.09 percent of the infected cases.

To assess the seriousness of the pandemic situation, ECDC established the following benchmarks:

COVID-19 significant thresholds
	LEVEL 4 VERY HIGH	LEVEL 3 HIGH	LEVEL 2 MODERATE	LEVEL 1 LOW
Incidence Rate (New reported cases over past 28 days per 100,000 population)	More than 500	100-500	50-99	Fewer than 50

Covid-19 Reporting Schedule

ECDC, our source for the pandemic data, switched to a weekly reporting schedule from 17 December 2020. We at areppim will adhere to ECDC's schedule and publish our situation reports every Thursday.

Previous reports available :

March 2020 : 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31