areppim graph and statistics of actual mobile subscriptions until end 2017 and forecasts through 2025. By the end of 2017 there will be 7.7 billion mobile subscribers worldwide, corresponding to a global penetration of 94%. This averages 10.3 mobile phones for 10 people, or more than one device per living person.

ITU (International Telecommunications Union) estimates that by the end of 2017 there will be 7.7 billion mobile subscribers worldwide, corresponding to a global penetration of 94%. This averages 10.3 mobile phones for 10 people, or more than one device per living person.

Our new forecast (compare with 2013, 2012, 2011, and 2008 forecasts) shows ITU's data of actual mobile subscriptions from 1980 through 2017, represented by blue dots, and areppim's forecast till 2025, represented by the S-shaped red line. The model anticipates a global market size of 8.17 billion subscribers by 2025, corresponding to 101% of the projected world population, and close to market saturation estimated at 8.21 billion.

Despite the fact that, at the end of 2017, there are as many mobile-cellular subscriptions as people on earth and 95 per cent of the global population lives in an area that is covered by a mobile-cellular signal, mobile usage is not yet evenly spread. Indeed, while many people have multiple subscriptions or devices, especially in the developed economies, a large chunk of the population, especially in the developing economies, has not access to mobile services, mostly because many people simply cannot afford the cost.

ITU's 2016 edition of the "Measuring the Information Society" report provides a summary of the mobile technology status. Some highlights:

All of the above call for a threefold comment:

 

Mobile Cellular Phone Subscribers
(million)

Year

Actual

Forecast ¹

19800.021.62
19810.062.19
19820.102.97
19830.154.03
19840.325.47
19850.757.42
19861.4510.05
19872.5513.63
19884.3318.47
19897.3525.04
199011.2133.92
199116.0045.94
199223.0062.18
199334.0084.11
199456.00114
199591.00153
1996145207
1997215278
1998318372
1999490497
2000738660
2001961870
20021,1571,137
20031,4171,470
20041,7631,874
20052,2052,350
20062,7452,893
20073,3683,486
20084,0304,107
20094,6404,728
20105,2905,321
20115,8905,864
20126,2616,340
20136,6616,744
20146,9967,077
20157,1847,344
20167,5117,554
20177,7407,717
2018 7,842
2019 7,936
2020 8,007
2021 8,061
2022 8,100
2023 8,130
2024 8,152
2025 8,168
Average annual change rate42.13% 
¹ Logistic growth function.
² ITU's estimates.

 

Source: ITU International Telecommunications Union

 Download

 

top

areppim logo  areppim: information, pure and simple