areppim line chart, table and forecast of mobile web penetration. The S-curve forecast shows that the mobile Web market share has been growing exponentially, met its inflection point by 2005, to decelerated thereafter,  gradually approaching saturation at around 64%.

The S-curve forecast shows that the mobile Web market share has been growing exponentially, met its inflection point by 2015, to decelerate thereafter, gradually approaching saturation at around 64%.

This mathematical forecast does not take into account any causal relationships, such extraneous factors as population, purchasing power and technological changes, or the bumps of the medium adoption by the market. Other forecasting approaches are likely to produce different results. The saturation point at about 64% is well below the 90% value suggested by the substitution of mobile to desktop forecast.

 

Forecast
Mobile Web Penetration
Worldwide

Date

Actual Market Share
Percent

Forecast¹

2008-120.61.27
2009-010.671.33
2009-020.691.4
2009-030.81.48
2009-040.861.56
2009-050.861.64
2009-060.941.72
2009-071.051.82
2009-081.121.91
2009-091.122.01
2009-101.152.12
2009-111.212.23
2009-121.282.34
2010-011.562.47
2010-021.722.6
2010-031.962.73
2010-042.182.87
2010-052.323.02
2010-062.573.18
2010-072.863.34
2010-083.213.51
2010-093.53.69
2010-103.813.88
2010-114.024.07
2010-124.14.28
2011-014.34.5
2011-024.454.72
2011-034.74.96
2011-045.215.21
2011-055.755.46
2011-066.535.73
2011-077.026.01
2011-087.126.31
2011-096.746.62
2011-106.556.93
2011-116.957.27
2011-128.047.62
2012-018.497.98
2012-028.538.35
2012-038.998.74
2012-049.589.15
2012-0510.119.57
2012-0610.410.01
2012-0711.0910.46
2012-0811.4410.93
2012-0911.6611.42
2012-1011.9211.92
2012-1112.6612.44
2012-1214.0412.98
2013-0113.5613.53
2013-0213.7114.1
2013-0313.7914.69
2013-0413.3115.3
2013-0513.9815.92
2013-0615.3316.56
2013-0716.5117.21
2013-0817.1417.88
2013-0916.9818.57
2013-1018.7819.27
2013-1119.0819.98
2013-1222.1820.72
2014-0122.3921.46
2014-0223.2522.22
2014-0323.9322.98
2014-0423.5623.76
2014-0525.4124.55
2014-0626.6625.35
2014-0727.5126.16
2014-0828.5726.98
2014-0929.3627.8
2014-1030.6728.63
2014-1131.5429.46
2014-1231.8230.29
2015-0131.0631.13
2015-0230.8131.97
2015-0331.5832.81
2015-0431.5633.64
2015-0532.8234.47
2015-0634.2135.3
2015-0737.1536.13
2015-0839.1836.95
2015-0938.7837.76
2015-1039.0138.56
2015-1137.6239.35
2015-1238.6240.14
2016-0138.8840.91
2016-0238.9641.67
2016-0340.642.42
2016-0441.3243.15
2016-0543.543.88
2016-0641.6144.58
2016-0744.7545.27
2016-0844.4145.95
2016-0944.9146.61
2016-1046.5347.25
2016-1148.2547.88
2016-1250.3148.49
2017-0149.649.09
2017-0249.7349.66
2017-0350.7550.22
2017-0451.9550.77
2017-0551.751.29
2017-0653.0351.8
2017-0753.9952.3
2017-0852.6452.77
2017-0952.2953.23
2017-10 53.67
2017-11 54.1
2017-12 54.51
2018-01 54.91
2018-02 55.29
2018-03 55.66
2018-04 56.01
2018-05 56.35
2018-06 56.67
2018-07 56.98
2018-08 57.28
2018-09 57.57
2018-10 57.84
2018-11 58.1
2018-12 58.35
2019-01 58.59
2019-02 58.82
2019-03 59.04
2019-04 59.25
2019-05 59.45
2019-06 59.64
2019-07 59.83
2019-08 60
2019-09 60.17
2019-10 60.33
2019-11 60.48
2019-12 60.62
2020-01 60.76
2020-02 60.89
2020-03 61.01
2020-04 61.13
2020-05 61.24
2020-06 61.35
2020-07 61.45
2020-08 61.55
2020-09 61.64
2020-10 61.73
2020-11 61.81
2020-12 61.89
¹ Forecast by the logistic function method.

 

Source: StatCounter Global Stats

 

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