The S-curve forecast shows that the mobile Web market share has been growing exponentially, met its inflection point by 2015, to decelerate thereafter, gradually approaching saturation at around 64%.
This mathematical forecast does not take into account any causal relationships, such extraneous factors as population, purchasing power and technological changes, or the bumps of the medium adoption by the market. Other forecasting approaches are likely to produce different results. The saturation point at about 64% is well below the 90% value suggested by the substitution of mobile to desktop forecast.
Forecast | ||
Date |
Actual Market Share |
Forecast¹ |
2008-12 | 0.6 | 1.27 |
2009-01 | 0.67 | 1.33 |
2009-02 | 0.69 | 1.4 |
2009-03 | 0.8 | 1.48 |
2009-04 | 0.86 | 1.56 |
2009-05 | 0.86 | 1.64 |
2009-06 | 0.94 | 1.72 |
2009-07 | 1.05 | 1.82 |
2009-08 | 1.12 | 1.91 |
2009-09 | 1.12 | 2.01 |
2009-10 | 1.15 | 2.12 |
2009-11 | 1.21 | 2.23 |
2009-12 | 1.28 | 2.34 |
2010-01 | 1.56 | 2.47 |
2010-02 | 1.72 | 2.6 |
2010-03 | 1.96 | 2.73 |
2010-04 | 2.18 | 2.87 |
2010-05 | 2.32 | 3.02 |
2010-06 | 2.57 | 3.18 |
2010-07 | 2.86 | 3.34 |
2010-08 | 3.21 | 3.51 |
2010-09 | 3.5 | 3.69 |
2010-10 | 3.81 | 3.88 |
2010-11 | 4.02 | 4.07 |
2010-12 | 4.1 | 4.28 |
2011-01 | 4.3 | 4.5 |
2011-02 | 4.45 | 4.72 |
2011-03 | 4.7 | 4.96 |
2011-04 | 5.21 | 5.21 |
2011-05 | 5.75 | 5.46 |
2011-06 | 6.53 | 5.73 |
2011-07 | 7.02 | 6.01 |
2011-08 | 7.12 | 6.31 |
2011-09 | 6.74 | 6.62 |
2011-10 | 6.55 | 6.93 |
2011-11 | 6.95 | 7.27 |
2011-12 | 8.04 | 7.62 |
2012-01 | 8.49 | 7.98 |
2012-02 | 8.53 | 8.35 |
2012-03 | 8.99 | 8.74 |
2012-04 | 9.58 | 9.15 |
2012-05 | 10.11 | 9.57 |
2012-06 | 10.4 | 10.01 |
2012-07 | 11.09 | 10.46 |
2012-08 | 11.44 | 10.93 |
2012-09 | 11.66 | 11.42 |
2012-10 | 11.92 | 11.92 |
2012-11 | 12.66 | 12.44 |
2012-12 | 14.04 | 12.98 |
2013-01 | 13.56 | 13.53 |
2013-02 | 13.71 | 14.1 |
2013-03 | 13.79 | 14.69 |
2013-04 | 13.31 | 15.3 |
2013-05 | 13.98 | 15.92 |
2013-06 | 15.33 | 16.56 |
2013-07 | 16.51 | 17.21 |
2013-08 | 17.14 | 17.88 |
2013-09 | 16.98 | 18.57 |
2013-10 | 18.78 | 19.27 |
2013-11 | 19.08 | 19.98 |
2013-12 | 22.18 | 20.72 |
2014-01 | 22.39 | 21.46 |
2014-02 | 23.25 | 22.22 |
2014-03 | 23.93 | 22.98 |
2014-04 | 23.56 | 23.76 |
2014-05 | 25.41 | 24.55 |
2014-06 | 26.66 | 25.35 |
2014-07 | 27.51 | 26.16 |
2014-08 | 28.57 | 26.98 |
2014-09 | 29.36 | 27.8 |
2014-10 | 30.67 | 28.63 |
2014-11 | 31.54 | 29.46 |
2014-12 | 31.82 | 30.29 |
2015-01 | 31.06 | 31.13 |
2015-02 | 30.81 | 31.97 |
2015-03 | 31.58 | 32.81 |
2015-04 | 31.56 | 33.64 |
2015-05 | 32.82 | 34.47 |
2015-06 | 34.21 | 35.3 |
2015-07 | 37.15 | 36.13 |
2015-08 | 39.18 | 36.95 |
2015-09 | 38.78 | 37.76 |
2015-10 | 39.01 | 38.56 |
2015-11 | 37.62 | 39.35 |
2015-12 | 38.62 | 40.14 |
2016-01 | 38.88 | 40.91 |
2016-02 | 38.96 | 41.67 |
2016-03 | 40.6 | 42.42 |
2016-04 | 41.32 | 43.15 |
2016-05 | 43.5 | 43.88 |
2016-06 | 41.61 | 44.58 |
2016-07 | 44.75 | 45.27 |
2016-08 | 44.41 | 45.95 |
2016-09 | 44.91 | 46.61 |
2016-10 | 46.53 | 47.25 |
2016-11 | 48.25 | 47.88 |
2016-12 | 50.31 | 48.49 |
2017-01 | 49.6 | 49.09 |
2017-02 | 49.73 | 49.66 |
2017-03 | 50.75 | 50.22 |
2017-04 | 51.95 | 50.77 |
2017-05 | 51.7 | 51.29 |
2017-06 | 53.03 | 51.8 |
2017-07 | 53.99 | 52.3 |
2017-08 | 52.64 | 52.77 |
2017-09 | 52.29 | 53.23 |
2017-10 | 53.67 | |
2017-11 | 54.1 | |
2017-12 | 54.51 | |
2018-01 | 54.91 | |
2018-02 | 55.29 | |
2018-03 | 55.66 | |
2018-04 | 56.01 | |
2018-05 | 56.35 | |
2018-06 | 56.67 | |
2018-07 | 56.98 | |
2018-08 | 57.28 | |
2018-09 | 57.57 | |
2018-10 | 57.84 | |
2018-11 | 58.1 | |
2018-12 | 58.35 | |
2019-01 | 58.59 | |
2019-02 | 58.82 | |
2019-03 | 59.04 | |
2019-04 | 59.25 | |
2019-05 | 59.45 | |
2019-06 | 59.64 | |
2019-07 | 59.83 | |
2019-08 | 60 | |
2019-09 | 60.17 | |
2019-10 | 60.33 | |
2019-11 | 60.48 | |
2019-12 | 60.62 | |
2020-01 | 60.76 | |
2020-02 | 60.89 | |
2020-03 | 61.01 | |
2020-04 | 61.13 | |
2020-05 | 61.24 | |
2020-06 | 61.35 | |
2020-07 | 61.45 | |
2020-08 | 61.55 | |
2020-09 | 61.64 | |
2020-10 | 61.73 | |
2020-11 | 61.81 | |
2020-12 | 61.89 | |
¹ Forecast by the logistic function method. |
Source: StatCounter Global Stats