areppim chart and statistics of mobile penetration rates 1980-2023. With 7.4 billion subscribers by the end of 2016, 99.6% of the world population currently hold a subscription to mobile cellular telephony. The market penetration of the device grew exponentially, at an annual average rate of 53.8%, much faster than the population, until 2008, when it reached the inflection point. Thereafter, it initiated a steady decline, at the comparatively low annual average growth rate of 6.88% for the period 2009 to 2016, slowly approaching final saturation.

With 7.7 billion subscribers by the end of 2017, 103.4% of the world population currently hold a subscription to mobile cellular telephony on average. The market penetration of the device grew exponentially, at an annual rate of 54.7%, much faster than the population, until 2008, when it reached the inflection point. Thereafter, the change rate initiated a steady decline, with an annual average growth of 6.6% for the period 2009 to 2017, slowly closing in on final saturation.

According to areppim's most recent forecast, market saturation may occur at 8.21 billion subscriptions, somewhere in the mid-2030's. The straight red line of the chart (Fisher-Pry normalization of the logistic curve, rendering it a straight line) clearly shows the fast growth of cellular phones to saturation level, with the midpoint in 2008, and a current penetration of 94%. From now on, further global growth will mostly be commanded by sheer population growth, or alternatively by a technology quantum leap capable of taking the world out of the current cellular phone paradigm — International Telecommunications Union (ITU) seems to consider that mobile broadband Internet services can do it.

Mobile Cellular Phones
Global Market Penetration
1980 - 2025

Year

World population

Actual

Forecast¹

(million)Subscribers (million)Percent of populationSubscribers (million)Percent of populationPercent market saturation
19804,4490.020.001%1.620.04%0.02%
19814,5280.060.001%2.190.05%0.03%
19824,6090.100.002%2.970.06%0.04%
19834,6920.150.003%4.030.09%0.05%
19844,7760.320.01%5.470.11%0.07%
19854,8640.750.02%7.420.15%0.09%
19864,9531.450.03%10.10.20%0.12%
19875,0452.550.05%13.60.27%0.17%
19885,1384.330.08%18.50.36%0.22%
19895,2307.350.14%25.00.48%0.30%
19905,321110.21%33.90.64%0.41%
19915,409160.30%45.90.85%0.56%
19925,495230.42%62.21.13%0.76%
19935,579340.61%84.11.5%1.0%
19945,661560.99%113.72.0%1.4%
19955,742911.6%153.42.7%1.9%
19965,8211452.5%206.73.6%2.5%
19975,8992153.6%277.84.7%3.4%
19985,9753185.3%372.36.2%4.5%
19996,0514908.1%496.98.2%6.0%
20006,12873812.0%659.810.8%8.0%
20016,20496115.5%869.914.0%10.6%
20026,2811,15718.4%1,137.018.1%13.8%
20036,3581,41722.3%1,469.623.1%17.9%
20046,4361,76327.4%1,873.729.1%22.8%
20056,5142,20533.9%2,350.336.1%28.6%
20066,5932,74541.6%2,892.843.9%35.2%
20076,6733,36850.5%3,486.052.2%42.4%
20086,7544,03059.7%4,107.060.8%50.0%
20096,8354,64067.9%4,728.069.2%57.6%
20106,9165,29076.5%5,321.276.9%64.8%
20116,9985,89084.2%5,863.783.8%71.4%
20127,0806,26188.4%6,340.389.6%77.2%
20137,1626,66193.0%6,744.494.2%82.1%
20147,2446,99696.6%7,077.097.7%86.2%
20157,3257,18498.1%7,344.1100.3%89.4%
20167,4057,511101.4%7,554.2102.0%92.0%
20177,4847,740 ²103.4%7,717.1103.1%94.0%
20187,563  7,841.7103.7%95.5%
20197,640  7,936.2103.9%96.6%
20207,717  8,007.3103.8%97.5%
20217,792  8,060.6103.4%98.1%
20227,867  8,100.3103.0%98.6%
20237,940  8,129.9102.4%99.0%
20248,012  8,151.8101.7%99.2%
20258,083  8,168.1101.0%99.4%
Annual average growth rates :
- 1980-2008 : 54.68%.
- 2009-2017 : 6.61%
- 1980-2017 : 41.59%
- 1980-2025 : 33.26%
¹ Logistic growth function
² ITU's estimate.

 

Source: ITU International Telecommunications Union

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