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Paradoxical Diagnostic Tests

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Paradoxical Diagnostic Tests

Welcome to areppim's Probability Calculator!

Adrien was not in a good mood when he met Basile at lunch table. The morning had included a chat with the insurance company physician to review the results of a medical diagnostic test they both had taken as a requisite for a life insurance contract.
"The insurance refuses to insure me, the reason being that I tested positive! I am sure the test is wrong, my health is OK, but they won't listen...", said Adrien in an outburst of indignation.
"The problem is ignorance. The test being positive does not mean a thing as relates to your health, but it carries a lot of weight for the insurance bureaucrats. Fortunately, I have been lucky. I tested negative, and the chances are that I can rely on the test, and the insurer also believes it!", retorted Basile.
Do you feel Basile is making sense?

Enter your parameters:

General population considered (e.g. 1000000):
Percent of population infected (in %):
Confidence level (in % - by default 95%):

     

 

 

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