US federal budgets — in real dollars, 2009=100 — have been riddled with chronic deficits since the end of World War II. During the 75 years from 1945 to 2019 (data from 2014 onwards are US government estimates), only 12 fiscal years show a surplus, and always for a short spell, the longest being the 4-year period from 1998 to 2001, under Clinton's administration. Surpluses are quite humble compared with deficits. The average surplus amounts to 92 billion USD, whereas the average deficit reaches -295.3 billion USD, or more than 4 times bigger.
From 2002 onwards, federal budget deficits plunged to the abyss, reaching 67% of annual receipts by the end of G.W.Bush's administration, in 2009. Since 2010, under Obama's administration, the squeeze on tax revenues caused by the economy downturn, the swelling of spending caused by the continuation of the global war, and the assets rescue, economy stimuli, and social stabilizer programs launched to alleviate the impact of the financial and economic meltdown of 2008, all boosted budget deficits that remain amongst the largest since 1945.
In fact, deficits may be even larger than reported, because the government is using social security surpluses to offset other federal spending, thereby decreasing current budget deficits, while increasing the amount of Treasury securities held by the Trust Fund.
The budget outlook, according to government estimates, is anything but rejoicing, even under the scenario of an economy turnaround and higher tax revenues. Fiscal gaps are expected to last and, although narrowing, are projected to stay at the two digit level through 2019. By applying to the actual 1945-2013 data an exponential regression (dashed lines) through 2025, one obtains a somewhat different and disquieting story. Receipts and outlays instead of converging, continue diverging, and the deficit gap, instead of narrowing, grows at the annual average rate of 3%. It is a bad omen for the people, subjected to bigger tax bills in return for evaporating federal services.
Summary of Receipts, Outlays,and Surpluses or Deficits (-) | |||||||||
Fiscal Year | Historical | Forecast ¹ | |||||||
Receipts | Outlays | Surplus or Deficit (-) | Receipts | Outlays | Surplus or Deficit (-) | Receipts | Outlays | Surplus or Deficit (-) | |
| Current USD | Constant (FY 2009) USD ² | ||||||||
| 1945 | 45.2 | 92.7 | -47.6 | 542.1 | 1,113.0 | -570.9 | 441.6 | 452.6 | -11.0 |
| 1946 | 39.3 | 55.2 | -15.9 | 467.8 | 657.5 | -189.7 | 453.9 | 466.5 | -12.6 |
| 1947 | 38.5 | 34.5 | 4.0 | 410.2 | 367.4 | 42.8 | 466.6 | 480.8 | -14.2 |
| 1948 | 41.6 | 29.8 | 11.8 | 417.7 | 299.1 | 118.6 | 479.6 | 495.5 | -15.9 |
| 1949 | 39.4 | 38.8 | 0.6 | 410.6 | 404.5 | 6.0 | 493.0 | 510.7 | -17.7 |
| 1950 | 39.4 | 42.6 | -3.1 | 392.1 | 423.1 | -31.0 | 506.8 | 526.4 | -19.6 |
| 1951 | 51.6 | 45.5 | 6.1 | 513.1 | 452.4 | 60.7 | 520.9 | 542.5 | -21.6 |
| 1952 | 66.2 | 67.7 | -1.5 | 659.7 | 674.8 | -15.1 | 535.5 | 559.1 | -23.7 |
| 1953 | 69.6 | 76.1 | -6.5 | 645.7 | 705.9 | -60.2 | 550.4 | 576.3 | -25.9 |
| 1954 | 69.7 | 70.9 | -1.2 | 625.1 | 635.5 | -10.4 | 565.8 | 594.0 | -28.2 |
| 1955 | 65.5 | 68.4 | -3.0 | 568.2 | 594.1 | -26.0 | 581.6 | 612.2 | -30.6 |
| 1956 | 74.6 | 70.6 | 3.9 | 620.5 | 587.7 | 32.8 | 597.8 | 630.9 | -33.1 |
| 1957 | 80.0 | 76.6 | 3.4 | 634.8 | 607.8 | 27.1 | 614.5 | 650.3 | -35.8 |
| 1958 | 79.6 | 82.4 | -2.8 | 596.5 | 617.3 | -20.7 | 631.7 | 670.2 | -38.6 |
| 1959 | 79.2 | 92.1 | -12.8 | 570.5 | 663.1 | -92.5 | 649.3 | 690.8 | -41.5 |
| 1960 | 92.5 | 92.2 | 0.3 | 656.0 | 653.8 | 2.1 | 667.4 | 712.0 | -44.5 |
| 1961 | 94.4 | 97.7 | -3.3 | 655.0 | 678.2 | -23.1 | 686.1 | 733.8 | -47.7 |
| 1962 | 99.7 | 106.8 | -7.1 | 691.2 | 740.8 | -49.6 | 705.2 | 756.3 | -51.1 |
| 1963 | 106.6 | 111.3 | -4.8 | 709.5 | 741.1 | -31.7 | 724.9 | 779.5 | -54.6 |
| 1964 | 112.6 | 118.5 | -5.9 | 737.5 | 776.2 | -38.7 | 745.2 | 803.4 | -58.2 |
| 1965 | 116.8 | 118.2 | -1.4 | 753.7 | 762.8 | -9.1 | 766.0 | 828.0 | -62.1 |
| 1966 | 130.8 | 134.5 | -3.7 | 821.3 | 844.5 | -23.2 | 787.4 | 853.4 | -66.1 |
| 1967 | 148.8 | 157.5 | -8.6 | 913.6 | 966.6 | -53.1 | 809.3 | 879.6 | -70.3 |
| 1968 | 153.0 | 178.1 | -25.2 | 905.7 | 1,054.7 | -149.0 | 831.9 | 906.6 | -74.6 |
| 1969 | 186.9 | 183.6 | 3.2 | 1,041.1 | 1,023.1 | 18.1 | 855.2 | 934.4 | -79.2 |
| 1970 | 192.8 | 195.6 | -2.8 | 1,016.4 | 1,031.4 | -15.0 | 879.1 | 963.0 | -84.0 |
| 1971 | 187.1 | 210.2 | -23.0 | 922.3 | 1,035.8 | -113.5 | 903.6 | 992.6 | -88.9 |
| 1972 | 207.3 | 230.7 | -23.4 | 958.0 | 1,066.0 | -108.0 | 928.8 | 1,023.0 | -94.2 |
| 1973 | 230.8 | 245.7 | -14.9 | 1,019.0 | 1,084.8 | -65.8 | 954.8 | 1,054.4 | -99.6 |
| 1974 | 263.2 | 269.4 | -6.1 | 1,073.1 | 1,098.1 | -25.0 | 981.4 | 1,086.7 | -105.3 |
| 1975 | 279.1 | 332.3 | -53.2 | 1,036.0 | 1,233.6 | -197.6 | 1,008.8 | 1,120.0 | -111.2 |
| 1976 | 298.1 | 371.8 | -73.7 | 1,032.8 | 1,288.3 | -255.5 | 1,037.0 | 1,154.4 | -117.3 |
| 1977 | 355.6 | 409.2 | -53.7 | 1,148.4 | 1,321.8 | -173.3 | 1,066.0 | 1,189.8 | -123.8 |
| 1978 | 399.6 | 458.7 | -59.2 | 1,214.1 | 1,393.9 | -179.8 | 1,095.7 | 1,226.2 | -130.5 |
| 1979 | 463.3 | 504.0 | -40.7 | 1,296.7 | 1,410.7 | -114.0 | 1,126.3 | 1,263.8 | -137.5 |
| 1980 | 517.1 | 590.9 | -73.8 | 1,309.5 | 1,496.4 | -187.0 | 1,157.8 | 1,302.6 | -144.8 |
| 1981 | 599.3 | 678.2 | -79.0 | 1,366.0 | 1,546.0 | -180.0 | 1,190.1 | 1,342.5 | -152.4 |
| 1982 | 617.8 | 745.7 | -128.0 | 1,309.7 | 1,581.0 | -271.3 | 1,223.3 | 1,383.7 | -160.4 |
| 1983 | 600.6 | 808.4 | -207.8 | 1,213.5 | 1,633.4 | -419.9 | 1,257.5 | 1,426.1 | -168.6 |
| 1984 | 666.4 | 851.8 | -185.4 | 1,290.3 | 1,649.2 | -358.9 | 1,292.6 | 1,469.9 | -177.2 |
| 1985 | 734.0 | 946.3 | -212.3 | 1,376.1 | 1,774.2 | -398.0 | 1,328.7 | 1,514.9 | -186.2 |
| 1986 | 769.2 | 990.4 | -221.2 | 1,404.3 | 1,808.3 | -403.9 | 1,365.8 | 1,561.4 | -195.6 |
| 1987 | 854.3 | 1,004.0 | -149.7 | 1,517.1 | 1,783.0 | -265.9 | 1,404.0 | 1,609.3 | -205.3 |
| 1988 | 909.2 | 1,064.4 | -155.2 | 1,562.3 | 1,828.9 | -266.6 | 1,443.2 | 1,658.6 | -215.5 |
| 1989 | 991.1 | 1,143.7 | -152.6 | 1,640.1 | 1,892.7 | -252.6 | 1,483.5 | 1,709.5 | -226.0 |
| 1990 | 1,032.0 | 1,253.0 | -221.0 | 1,657.5 | 2,012.5 | -355.0 | 1,524.9 | 1,761.9 | -237.0 |
| 1991 | 1,055.0 | 1,324.2 | -269.2 | 1,619.3 | 2,032.6 | -413.3 | 1,567.5 | 1,815.9 | -248.5 |
| 1992 | 1,091.2 | 1,381.5 | -290.3 | 1,614.7 | 2,044.3 | -429.6 | 1,611.2 | 1,871.6 | -260.4 |
| 1993 | 1,154.3 | 1,409.4 | -255.1 | 1,659.0 | 2,025.6 | -366.6 | 1,656.2 | 1,929.0 | -272.8 |
| 1994 | 1,258.6 | 1,461.8 | -203.2 | 1,775.9 | 2,062.6 | -286.7 | 1,702.5 | 1,988.2 | -285.7 |
| 1995 | 1,351.8 | 1,515.7 | -164.0 | 1,853.3 | 2,078.1 | -224.8 | 1,750.0 | 2,049.1 | -299.1 |
| 1996 | 1,453.1 | 1,560.5 | -107.4 | 1,949.9 | 2,094.0 | -144.2 | 1,798.9 | 2,112.0 | -313.1 |
| 1997 | 1,579.2 | 1,601.1 | -21.9 | 2,077.4 | 2,106.2 | -28.8 | 1,849.1 | 2,176.7 | -327.6 |
| 1998 | 1,721.7 | 1,652.5 | 69.3 | 2,244.8 | 2,154.4 | 90.3 | 1,900.8 | 2,243.5 | -342.7 |
| 1999 | 1,827.5 | 1,701.8 | 125.6 | 2,352.5 | 2,190.8 | 161.7 | 1,953.8 | 2,312.3 | -358.4 |
| 2000 | 2,025.2 | 1,789.0 | 236.2 | 2,543.6 | 2,246.9 | 296.7 | 2,008.4 | 2,383.2 | -374.8 |
| 2001 | 1,991.1 | 1,862.8 | 128.2 | 2,435.6 | 2,278.7 | 156.9 | 2,064.5 | 2,456.2 | -391.8 |
| 2002 | 1,853.1 | 2,010.9 | -157.8 | 2,229.2 | 2,419.0 | -189.8 | 2,122.1 | 2,531.6 | -409.4 |
| 2003 | 1,782.3 | 2,159.9 | -377.6 | 2,086.0 | 2,528.0 | -441.9 | 2,181.4 | 2,609.2 | -427.8 |
| 2004 | 1,880.1 | 2,292.8 | -412.7 | 2,142.8 | 2,613.2 | -470.4 | 2,242.3 | 2,689.2 | -446.9 |
| 2005 | 2,153.6 | 2,472.0 | -318.3 | 2,371.8 | 2,722.4 | -350.6 | 2,304.9 | 2,771.7 | -466.8 |
| 2006 | 2,406.9 | 2,655.0 | -248.2 | 2,562.1 | 2,826.3 | -264.2 | 2,369.3 | 2,856.7 | -487.4 |
| 2007 | 2,568.0 | 2,728.7 | -160.7 | 2,663.1 | 2,829.7 | -166.7 | 2,435.4 | 2,944.3 | -508.8 |
| 2008 | 2,524.0 | 2,982.5 | -458.6 | 2,529.0 | 2,988.5 | -459.5 | 2,503.4 | 3,034.5 | -531.1 |
| 2009 | 2,105.0 | 3,517.7 | -1,412.7 | 2,105.0 | 3,517.7 | -1,412.7 | 2,573.4 | 3,127.6 | -554.2 |
| 2010 | 2,162.7 | 3,457.1 | -1,294.4 | 2,137.5 | 3,416.8 | -1,279.3 | 2,645.2 | 3,223.5 | -578.3 |
| 2011 | 2,303.5 | 3,603.1 | -1,299.6 | 2,232.7 | 3,492.4 | -1,259.7 | 2,719.1 | 3,322.4 | -603.3 |
| 2012 | 2,450.2 | 3,537.1 | -1,087.0 | 2,331.0 | 3,365.2 | -1,034.1 | 2,795.0 | 3,424.2 | -629.2 |
| 2013 | 2,775.1 | 3,454.6 | -679.5 | 2,597.9 | 3,234.0 | -636.1 | 2,873.1 | 3,529.2 | -656.2 |
| 2014 ³ | 3,001.7 | 3,650.5 | -648.8 | 2,768.9 | 3,367.3 | -598.5 | 2,953.3 | 3,637.5 | -684.2 |
| 2015 ³ | 3,337.4 | 3,901.0 | -563.6 | 3,022.2 | 3,532.5 | -510.3 | 3,035.7 | 3,749.0 | -713.2 |
| 2016 ³ | 3,568.0 | 4,099.1 | -531.1 | 3,164.2 | 3,635.2 | -471.0 | 3,120.5 | 3,864.0 | -743.4 |
| 2017 ³ | 3,810.8 | 4,268.6 | -457.8 | 3,307.7 | 3,705.1 | -397.4 | 3,207.7 | 3,982.4 | -774.8 |
| 2018 ³ | 4,029.9 | 4,443.1 | -413.3 | 3,421.2 | 3,772.1 | -350.9 | 3,297.2 | 4,104.6 | -807.3 |
| 2019 ³ | 4,226.1 | 4,728.8 | -502.7 | 3,509.2 | 3,926.6 | -417.4 | 3,389.3 | 4,230.4 | -841.1 |
| 2020 | 3,483.9 | 4,360.1 | -876.2 | ||||||
| 2021 | 3,581.2 | 4,493.8 | -912.6 | ||||||
| 2022 | 3,681.2 | 4,631.6 | -950.4 | ||||||
| 2023 | 3,784.0 | 4,773.7 | -989.7 | ||||||
| 2024 | 3,889.7 | 4,920.1 | -1,030.4 | ||||||
| 2025 | 3,998.3 | 5,070.9 | -1,072.6 | ||||||
| Average annual change rate (1945-2013) | 6.24% | 5.46% | 2.33% | 1.58% | |||||
| Average annual change rate (1945-2019) | 6.32% | 5.46% | 2.56% | 1.72% | |||||
| Average annual change rate (1945-2025) | 2.79% | 3.07% | |||||||
| ¹ By applying the US budget Composite Deflator. ² Exponential forecast based on actual values 1945-2013. ³ Government budget estimates. | |||||||||
Sources: US Government Printing Office, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
