Chart and statistics of historical crude oil barrel price in constant US dollars (2009=100), from 1968 to 2011, and non-linear projection until 2050, showing an upward trend that may drive barrel prices to $200 by 2035 and more than $300 by 2050. The barrel price was $14.4 in 1968 and reached $92.51 in 1st quarter of 2011. Volatility is high, barrel prices being very sensitive to exogenous variables such as political, financial and economic turmoil

The chart blue dots are the historical average barrel prices (in constant US$, 2009=100) of crude oil, while the red line provides the non-linear projection until 2050. The chart does not intend to be a prediction tool of future prices, but only a strong reminder that the upwards trend will drive oil prices to stratospheric values. Since kerosene and gas prices at the pump closely follow crude oil prices, it is foreseeable that a flight ticket or a car ride will become unaffordable for the common person in a not so far away future.

However hard it may be to tell what the barrel of crude oil will be worth after-tomorrow, it is an easy guess to foresee that it will move significantly up in the long run. The market price of oil is influenced by a complex set of interrelated factors, which render the final outcome of a small change upstream quite unexpected or outright counter intuitive. Take the 2008 "subprime" mortgage collapse – the average barrel price dipped from around $120 to below $60.

Volatility of crude prices is probably to be blamed on political and speculative actions that cause prices to unexpectedly go through the roof and suddenly crash on the floor, rather than to the economic and demographic fundamentals that drive the long-term trends.

Some demand factors are obvious and can be planned for, to a large extent:

Other factors are less adept to planning:

The intricate interplay of all these factors do not allow for reliable forecasts. The US energy information administration (EIA), the source of data in this page, periodically reports on the energy situation using their own energy modeling system. In its 2011 energy outlook EIA presents a high oil price case that places the price of the barrel at $200 (2009=100) by 2035.

The issue with such econometric models is the underlying assumption that there are no limits. GDP can grow, housing can multiply, transportation can spread forever, and energy sources will pop up inextinguishable, from somewhere, be it a supposedly unlimited planet or the fathomless technological human genius, in order to quench the insatiable demand for energy.

But efficiency gains and energy source substitution will not suffice. We must plan for a radical change of our energy consuming habits or else, someday, our own dark and greedy persona will provoke a painful settling of scores.

 

World Average Crude Oil Price ¹
(Actuals 1968-2011 and Forecast)

Year

Quarter 1

Quarter 2

Quarter 3

Quarter 4

Average Annual Price

Forecast
(logistic function)
(per barrel – constant US$ 2009=100)
196814.8314.5514.2813.9614.4114.41
196913.7013.4113.3513.3713.4615.04
197013.3713.3613.4813.5513.4415.71
197113.58 (1)13.6213.5713.5113.5716.40
197213.3613.3313.9414.6413.8217.12
197315.33 (2)15.9322.4830.1120.9617.87
197442.9147.0544.6843.1744.4518.66
197543.6244.8245.7147.2345.3519.48
197642.0541.8541.5641.0541.6320.33
197742.7242.5742.0541.4542.2021.22
197840.46 (3)39.6839.0538.9839.5422.15
197941.2648.6959.5065.3753.7123.11
198076.38 (4)79.3178.3777.7177.9424.12
198183.5479.9874.7673.2577.8825.17
198270.7166.1065.1164.2866.5526.26
198358.3954.7155.4555.2055.9427.40
198453.6353.7352.7351.7952.9728.59
198548.9149.0547.2347.1548.0929.82
198634.21 (5)24.2624.0626.6027.2831.11
198731.1832.9834.4031.2432.4532.45
198827.7528.4124.7023.8326.1733.84
198929.5032.2730.3431.7630.9735.29
199033.5927.0939.9047.7637.0936.80
199132.41 (6)30.5331.6331.5531.5338.36
199227.3130.4330.9629.1029.4540.00
199327.9827.7624.8922.8425.8741.69
199420.5124.4925.3124.0323.5943.45
199524.8926.1023.9624.2324.8045.29
199626.2228.6829.5132.2529.1747.19
199729.64 (7)25.8925.6425.7326.7349.17
199820.5618.8318.2016.5118.5351.22
199916.60 (8)22.3427.4030.9124.3153.35
200035.9335.6938.9839.2437.4655.56
200135.1033.7732.16 (9)24.5331.3957.86
200225.9531.3133.6633.3231.0660.24
200339.9733.8735.1136.0736.2662.71
200440.4043.5949.5154.1046.9065.27
200555.19 (10)58.4868.9564.9261.8967.92
200667.9574.9574.3963.0870.0970.67
200760.4367.0877.5293.0274.5173.51
200899.94125.42118.13 (11)58.56100.5176.46
200942.96 (12)59.4768.1276.0261.6479.50
201078.4077.1775.1383.9978.6782.66
201192.51   92.5185.92
2012     89.28
2013     92.76
2014     96.36
2015     100.06
2016     103.89
2017     107.83
2018     111.90
2019     116.08
2020     120.39
2021     124.82
2022     129.38
2023     134.07
2024     138.88
2025     143.81
2026     148.88
2027     154.07
2028     159.38
2029     164.82
2030     170.39
2031     176.08
2032     181.89
2033     187.81
2034     193.86
2035     200.02
2036     206.29
2037     212.67
2038     219.16
2039     225.75
2040     232.43
2041     239.21
2042     246.07
2043     253.02
2044     260.04
2045     267.13
2046     274.29
2047     281.51
2048     288.78
2049     296.10
2050     303.45
¹ Crude oil f.o.b. price: The crude oil price actually charged at the oil producing country's port of loading. Includes deductions for any rebates and discounts or additions of premiums, where applicable. It is the actual price paid with no adjustment for credit terms.
(1) US spare capacity exhausted
(2) Arab oil embargo
(3) Iranian revolution
(4) Iran-Iraq war
(5) Saudis abandon swing producer role
(6) Iraq invades Kuwait
(7) Asian financial crisis
(8) OPEC cuts production targets 1.7 mmbpd
(9) 9-11 attacks
(10) Low spare capacity
(11) Global financial collapse
(12) OPEC cuts production targets 4.2 mmbpd

 

Sources: EIA - Energy Information Administration

 

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