Double Y-axis chart of China cereals production per capita and production yields compared with population growth from 1961 to 2007.  Cereals production per capita increased from 164 to 344 kilograms per person, at an annual average rate of 1.6%. Yields grew much faster from 1,211  kilogram/hectare in 1961 to 5,315 in 2007, at an annual average rate of  3.3%. Meanwhile China's population grew from 669 million in 1961 to 1.3 billion in 2007, at an annual average rate of 1.5%.

While China's population doubled from 1961 to 2007, cereals production yields increased more than four fold, from 1,211 kilogram/hectare in 1961 to 5,315 in 2007, at an annual average rate of 3.3%. This performance enabled production per capita to grow from 164 to 344 kilograms per person, at an annual average rate of 1.6%, slightly faster than population. However, the continuous progress of yields is not in line with the recorded slowdown of the production per person after 1996. Indeed, while yields grew at an average 1% per year after 1996, production per person went negative at an average -1%/year. Maybe "green revolution" technologies will not suffice to ensure the steady supply of cereals that is needed to protect the nation from hunger.
[Primary Y-axis: production per person in kilograms, and yield in kilogram/hectare. Secondary Y-axis: population in millions. Dots represent actual data, for which the corresponding regression lines are provided in the same colour.]

 

China
Cereals Yields & Per Capita

Year

Population
(million)

Yield
(kilogram/hectare - kg/Ha)

Production/person
(kilogram - kg)

19616691,211164
19626821,342176
19636971,507197
19647121,640214
19657291,764222
19667481,895238
19677681,952236
19687891,958225
19698101,916218
19708312,143242
19718512,187249
19728722,122237
19738922,288249
19749102,402258
19759282,493264
19769442,537265
19779592,502254
19789722,802281
19799863,042297
19809992,949281
19811,0123,092283
19821,0253,465308
19831,0383,724333
19841,0523,961348
19851,0673,828319
19861,0833,895325
19871,1003,978327
19881,1173,937315
19891,1334,020324
19901,1494,323352
19911,1644,233342
19921,1774,366343
19931,1904,568343
19941,2024,510330
19951,2144,664345
19961,2264,897370
19971,2374,826360
19981,2494,954367
19991,2604,947361
20001,2704,756321
20011,2794,802311
20021,2884,890310
20031,2974,878290
20041,3055,190317
20051,3135,226327
20061,3215,313343
20071,3295,315344
Average change/year1.5%3.3%1.6%

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Sources: see FAOSTAT for cereals production data, and United Nations Statistics Division for population data.

 

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