China put forth a fine performance in cereals production. Yields grew 4.4 times, from 1,211 kilogram/hectare in 1961 to 5,315 in 2007, at an annual average rate of 3.3%. Such a productivity gain allowed production to grow four fold, from 110 million tonnes in 1961 to 457 in 2007, at an annual change average rate of 3.2%. However, production peaked in 1998, with an output of 458 million tonnes and, in spite of continuing yield improvement, it remained hesitant during the last ten years. A possible explanation is that arable land is disappearing, as suggested by the shrinking surface of harvested areas. Indeed, the latter grew from 90,553 thousand hectares in 1961 to a peak of 98,627 in 1976, only to lose 13 percent points since then, with a low 86,060 thousand hectares in 2007.
[Primary Y-axis: production in million metric tonnes, and yield in kilogram/hectare. Secondary Y-axis: area harvested in thousand hectares. Dots represent actual data, for which the corresponding regression lines are provided in the same colour.]

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Sources: see FAOSTAT.

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