The fixed line telephone market share (blue dots and line) has declined steadily since the late 1980s, while cellular technology market share (red dots and line) grows at high speed, making it a paradigmatic case of technology substitution.
By 1995, fixed telephony still had 90% of the market, and the future looked rosy, more so with the strong demand emerging from the consumer's uptake of Internet services, totally dependent upon fixed lines connections. But already by 2002, the two technologies were at par, with 50% each, evidencing the huge success of the digital cellular technologies. Nowadays, with Internet services widely available to the modern cellular phones, fixed lines will likely remain a niche player, limited to specialized domains, while cellular is spreading like a forest fire throughout the world market.
Mobile cellular | ||||||||
Year |
Main (fixed) telephone lines |
Mobile cellular subscriptions |
||||||
Actual |
Forecast ¹ |
Actual |
Forecast ¹ |
|||||
| Million | Market share | Million | Market share | Million | Market share | Million | Market share | |
| 1960 | 89.89 | 1 | 46.34 | 1 | ||||
| 1961 | 50.94 | 1 | ||||||
| 1962 | 55.98 | 1 | ||||||
| 1963 | 61.50 | 1 | ||||||
| 1964 | 67.54 | 1 | ||||||
| 1965 | 115.96 | 1 | 74.15 | 1 | ||||
| 1966 | 81.36 | 1 | ||||||
| 1967 | 89.24 | 1 | ||||||
| 1968 | 97.82 | 1 | ||||||
| 1969 | 107.17 | 1 | ||||||
| 1970 | 158.49 | 1 | 117.35 | 1 | ||||
| 1971 | 128.41 | 1 | ||||||
| 1972 | 140.40 | 1 | ||||||
| 1973 | 153.40 | 1 | ||||||
| 1974 | 167.46 | 1 | ||||||
| 1975 | 229.63 | 1 | 182.65 | 1 | ||||
| 1976 | 243.91 | 1 | 199.01 | 1 | ||||
| 1977 | 259.68 | 1 | 216.61 | 1 | ||||
| 1978 | 276.42 | 1 | 235.50 | 1 | ||||
| 1979 | 294.98 | 1 | 255.72 | 1 | ||||
| 1980 | 311.67 | 1 | 277.32 | 0.99 | 0.02 | 1.73 | 0.01 | |
| 1981 | 337.59 | 1 | 300.33 | 0.99 | 0.06 | 2.33 | 0.01 | |
| 1982 | 353.00 | 1 | 324.76 | 0.99 | 0.10 | 3.14 | 0.01 | |
| 1983 | 369.82 | 1 | 350.63 | 0.99 | 0.15 | 4.24 | 0.01 | |
| 1984 | 386.55 | 1 | 377.93 | 0.99 | 0.32 | 5.71 | 0.01 | |
| 1985 | 405.03 | 1 | 406.65 | 0.98 | 0.75 | 7.70 | 0.02 | |
| 1986 | 422.03 | 1 | 436.75 | 0.98 | 1.45 | 10.39 | 0.02 | |
| 1987 | 442.84 | 0.99 | 468.18 | 0.97 | 2.55 | 0.01 | 14.00 | 0.03 |
| 1988 | 466.51 | 0.99 | 500.87 | 0.96 | 4.33 | 0.01 | 18.88 | 0.04 |
| 1989 | 491.50 | 0.99 | 534.73 | 0.95 | 7.35 | 0.01 | 25.44 | 0.05 |
| 1990 | 519.80 | 0.98 | 569.66 | 0.94 | 11.21 | 0.02 | 34.27 | 0.06 |
| 1991 | 546 | 0.97 | 605.53 | 0.93 | 16.00 | 0.03 | 46.16 | 0.07 |
| 1992 | 572 | 0.96 | 642.20 | 0.91 | 23.00 | 0.04 | 62.14 | 0.09 |
| 1993 | 604 | 0.95 | 679.52 | 0.89 | 34.00 | 0.05 | 83.60 | 0.11 |
| 1994 | 643 | 0.92 | 717.33 | 0.86 | 56.00 | 0.08 | 112.37 | 0.14 |
| 1995 | 689 | 0.88 | 755.46 | 0.83 | 91.00 | 0.12 | 150.87 | 0.17 |
| 1996 | 738 | 0.84 | 793.71 | 0.80 | 145 | 0.16 | 202.24 | 0.20 |
| 1997 | 792 | 0.79 | 831.92 | 0.75 | 215 | 0.21 | 270.55 | 0.25 |
| 1998 | 838 | 0.72 | 869.90 | 0.71 | 318 | 0.28 | 360.95 | 0.29 |
| 1999 | 904 | 0.65 | 907.47 | 0.65 | 490 | 0.35 | 479.83 | 0.35 |
| 2000 | 975 | 0.57 | 944.46 | 0.60 | 738 | 0.43 | 634.87 | 0.40 |
| 2001 | 1,034 | 0.52 | 980.72 | 0.54 | 961 | 0.48 | 834.88 | 0.46 |
| 2002 | 1,083 | 0.48 | 1,016.10 | 0.48 | 1,157 | 0.52 | 1,089.34 | 0.52 |
| 2003 | 1,135 | 0.44 | 1,050.46 | 0.43 | 1,417 | 0.56 | 1,407.41 | 0.57 |
| 2004 | 1,204 | 0.41 | 1,083.70 | 0.38 | 1,763 | 0.59 | 1,796.29 | 0.62 |
| 2005 | 1,243 | 0.36 | 1,115.73 | 0.33 | 2,205 | 0.64 | 2,259.14 | 0.67 |
| 2006 | 1,261 | 0.31 | 1,146.45 | 0.29 | 2,745 | 0.69 | 2,792.68 | 0.71 |
| 2007 | 1,254 | 0.27 | 1,175.81 | 0.26 | 3,368 | 0.73 | 3,385.53 | 0.74 |
| 2008 | 1,249 | 0.24 | 1,203.77 | 0.23 | 4,030 | 0.76 | 4,017.97 | 0.77 |
| 2009 | 1,253 | 0.21 | 1,230.31 | 0.21 | 4,640 | 0.79 | 4,663.99 | 0.79 |
| 2010 | 1,228 | 0.19 | 1,255.40 | 0.19 | 5,320 | 0.81 | 5,295.26 | 0.81 |
| 2011 | 1,204 | 0.17 | 1,279.07 | 0.18 | 5,962 | 0.83 | 5,885.96 | 0.82 |
| 2012 | 1,186 | 0.16 | 1,301.31 | 0.17 | 6,411 | 0.84 | 6,416.70 | 0.83 |
| 2013 | 1,171 | 0.15 | 1,322.17 | 0.16 | 6,835 | 0.85 | 6,876.45 | 0.84 |
| 2014 | 1,341.67 | 0.16 | 7,262.26 | 0.84 | ||||
| 2015 | 1,359.86 | 0.15 | 7,577.48 | 0.85 | ||||
| 2016 | 1,376.78 | 0.15 | 7,829.47 | 0.85 | ||||
| 2017 | 1,392.51 | 0.15 | 8,027.41 | 0.85 | ||||
| 2018 | 1,407.08 | 0.15 | 8,180.75 | 0.85 | ||||
| 2019 | 1,420.56 | 0.15 | 8,298.29 | 0.85 | ||||
| 2020 | 1,433.01 | 0.15 | 8,387.64 | 0.85 | ||||
| ¹ Logistic forecast | ||||||||
Source: ITU International Telecommunications Union
