By the end of 2013 there were 6.8 billion mobile subscribers worldwide, corresponding to a global penetration of 96%, reports ITU (International Telecommunications Union). This averages 9.5 mobile phones for 10 people, or about 1 device per living person.

Our new forecast (compare with 2012, 2011, and 2008 forecasts) shows ITU's data of actual mobile subscriptions from 1980 through 2013, represented by blue dots, and areppim's forecast till 2025, represented by the S-shaped red line. The model anticipates a global market size of 8.6 billion subscribers by 2025, corresponding to 107% of the projected world population, and close to saturation that could happen at 8.7 billion subscribers by 2036.

Although our previous predictions have not been far off target, reality is unlikely to follow mathematics models that closely. First, the total world population in 2025 is expected to reach 8.01 billion people, of which 6.8 billion of age 10 to 84. It does not seem very reasonable to believe that each 10 people in this group will hold 13 subscriptions. Secondly, unforeseen technological innovations may totally upset the mobile phone paradigm, as the latter did to the fixed line telephony in the late 20th century. Thirdly, it is yet unclear what a mobile phone really is. In the 1980s a cell phone was a genuine phone, period; today, it is a device capable of performing a vast array of functions, including but not primarily that of a phone.

Be it as it may, the S-curve model raises some pertinent questions. If the period of exponential growth is already over as suggested, how could vendors stimulate growth ? Should stagnation rule in less than 10 years, what are suppliers and operators going to do to survive ? And more fascinating : what new communications technology is lurking in the dark, getting ready to take over ?

To summarize the current status of mobile cellular telephony, let us quote some highlights of ITU's "Measuring the Information Society" report, released in October 2013.

• There will be 6.8 billion mobile-cellular subscriptions by the end of 2013, almost as many as there are people on the planet.
• Close to 100 per cent of the population are covered by a mobile signal, however not everyone has a mobile phone. There are still 4.4 billion people who are not yet online. Priority attention needs to be given to the unconnected.
• While growth in mobile-cellular penetration is flattening, reaching 96 per cent by end 2013, mobile broadband continues to grow strongly, on average by around 40 per cent annually between 2010 and 2013.
• Expectations are high that mobile-broadband services will become equally as available as mobile-cellular telephony in the near future.
• Today, almost all people on Earth live somewhere within reach of a mobile-cellular signal. Not all of those networks, however, have been upgraded to 3G technology, which is necessary to qualify as mobile broadband and provide highspeed access to the Internet.
• Mobile broadband has been the fastest growing market segment over the past few years, with a 40 per cent average annual growth (CAGR) since 2007. It is growing rapidly not only in developed but also in developing countries.
• In addition to mobile-broadband services, a number of countries and operators, especially from the developing world, where fixed networks are very limited, have chosen to develop other wireless broadband services, in particular WiMAX services, providing a wireless alternative to cable and digital subscriber line.
• From 2007 to 2011, total telecommunication revenues grew by 12 per cent, climbing to USD 1.8 trillion, or 2.6 per cent of world GDP. Over the same period, the developing countries' share of total telecommunication revenues increased from 26 to 30 per cent.
• The 2008 financial crisis did indeed have an impact on telecommunication spending, particularly in developed countries, whereas developing countries were less affected.

Source: ITU International Telecommunications Union

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