International Tourist Arrivals : Actual data | World Forecast (S-curve) | 

 

areppim line chart and statistics showing the number of international tourist arrivals worldwide and by subregion. For the first time in 2012, tourist arrivals exceeded the number of 1 billion, reaching 1,035 million, 30 million more than in 2011, and pursuing a continuous growth since 1950, at an annual average rate of 6.2% (doubling time 11.6 years). During this extended period, Asia and the Pacific saw the strongest growth (12.06%), and Americas the lowest (5.08%).

For the first time in 2012, ITA (international tourist arrivals) exceeded the number of 1 billion, reaching 1,035 million, 39 million more than in 2011, pursuing a continuous global growth since 1950, at an annual average rate of 6.2% (doubling time 11.6 years). During this extended period, Asia and the Pacific saw the strongest growth (12.06%), and Americas the lowest (5.08%).

Demand suffered hugely from the financial and economic difficulties experienced in many parts of the world since 2008. Roughly, the growth rates were chopped by half, the world ITA having progressed of 3.07% since 2008, against the 6.17% for the full period since 1950. Demand in Europe and in the Americas grew modestly, and it suffered a negative inflection in the Middle East. Only Asia and the Pacific showed a good average growth of 6.05%. Given the dark prospects of the world economy, it is not likely that tourism demand will soon return to its historical growth rates.

 

International Tourist Arrivals, 1950-2012¹
(million)

Year

Africa

Americas

Asia & Pacific

Europe

Middle East

World

19500.57.50.216.80.225.3
19600.816.70.950.40.669.3
19651.423.22.183.72.4112.9
19702.442.36.2113.01.9165.8
19754.750.010.2153.93.5222.3
19807.262.323.0178.57.1278.1
19818.162.524.9175.57.6278.6
19827.659.726.0175.38.3276.9
19838.259.926.6179.67.5281.8
19848.967.429.5193.47.7306.8
19859.765.132.9204.38.1320.1
19869.470.936.8206.26.9330.2
19879.976.642.1223.97.2359.7
198812.683.048.7231.69.1385.0
198913.986.949.4250.79.2410.1
199015.292.856.2265.69.6439.5
199116.395.358.0263.98.9442.5
199218.3102.265.8282.211.3479.8
199318.9102.272.3290.811.4495.7
199419.3105.180.1303.112.1519.8
199520.4109.082.4315.013.7540.6
199622.2114.590.4332.115.8575.0
199723.2116.289.7352.916.7598.6
199825.6119.189.4364.618.0616.7
199927.0121.998.7370.521.5639.6
200027.9128.2110.6391.024.4682.0
200129.1122.1115.7395.224.5686.7
200230.0116.7124.9407.028.5707.0
200331.6113.1113.3407.129.5694.6
200434.5125.7144.2424.436.3765.1
200537.3133.5155.4441.539.0806.8
200641.4135.8166.8462.141.4847.0
200744.3142.5184.2484.947.4903.0
200844.4147.8184.1485.255.2917.0
200945.9141.7181.1461.752.8883.0
201049.8150.3205.1487.659.2952.0
201149.2156.3218.1517.555.3996.0
201252.3162.1232.9534.852.61,035.0
Average annual change rate 1950-20127.79%5.08%12.06%5.74%9.40%6.17%
Average annual change rate 2008-20124.18%2.34%6.05%2.46%-1.2%3.07%
¹ Change of time scale: 1-year scale from 1980 onwards.

 

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Forecast of the world tourism demand showing in blue the historical data until 2012, and in red the logistic function forecast. The forecast line suggests that saturation will be reached at about 2.1 billion tourist arrivals, roughly twice the 2012 level, and that the inflection point, when change rates instead of accelerating, start decelerating, will happen in 2013.

Historical data shows that tourism demand has been suffering from the financial and economic difficulties experienced in many parts of the world since 2008. Nevertheless, it is possible that structural causes, not only the ups and downs of financial crises, are weakening tourism demand, driving it to a slowdown adverse to the expectations that entrepreneurs still place in it.

The S-curve forecast purports to assess how demand could evolve in the long run, assuming that the variables that influenced its past keep playing a similar role in the future. The chart shows in blue the historical data until 2012, and in red the logistic function forecast. The forecast line suggests that saturation will be reached at about 2.1 billion tourist arrivals, roughly twice the 2012 level, and that the inflection point, when change rates instead of accelerating, start decelerating, will happen in 2013. This is only one possible scenario among others, but it is worthwhile pondering by whoever delves with the long term strategic decisions in an industry where things are typically lengthy — from building a resort to creating an image.

 

World International Tourist Arrivals
Forecast (S-curve)

Year

World ITA Actuals

World ITA Forecast

(million) (million)
195025.346
1951 49
1952 52
1953 55
1954 59
1955 62
1956 66
1957 70
1958 74
1959 78
196069.383
1961 88
1962 93
1963 99
1964 104
1965112.9110
1966 117
1967 124
1968 131
1969 138
1970165.8146
1971 155
1972 164
1973 173
1974 183
1975222.3193
1976 204
1977 215
1978 227
1979 239
1980278.1252
1981278.6266
1982276.9280
1983281.8295
1984306.8310
1985320.1326
1986330.2343
1987359.7361
1988385.0379
1989410.1398
1990439.5418
1991442.5438
1992479.8459
1993495.7481
1994519.8504
1995540.6527
1996575.0551
1997598.6575
1998616.7601
1999639.6627
2000682.0653
2001686.7680
2002707.0708
2003694.6736
2004765.1765
2005806.8794
2006847.0824
2007903.0854
2008917.0884
2009883.0915
2010952.0946
2011996.0977
20121,035.01,008
2013 1,039
2014 1,070
2015 1,101
2016 1,132
2017 1,163
2018 1,194
2019 1,224
2020 1,254
2021 1,284
2022 1,313
2023 1,342
2024 1,370
2025 1,398
2026 1,425
2027 1,451
2028 1,477
2029 1,503
2030 1,527
2031 1,551
2032 1,574
2033 1,597
2034 1,619
2035 1,640
2036 1,660
2037 1,680
2038 1,699
2039 1,717
2040 1,735
2041 1,752
2042 1,768
2043 1,783
2044 1,798
2045 1,812
2046 1,826
2047 1,839
2048 1,851
2049 1,863
2050 1,874

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Sources: UNWTO : World Tourism Barometer, Tourism Highlights.

 

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