The chart shows above the zero-line the countries that have achieved a current account balance surplus in 2009, ranked in descending order. Below the zero-line, are those that ended with a current account negative balance or deficit.

The economies showing a surplus can be divided into two categories. On one hand, those like China, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, the Netherlands or Singapore that have dynamic national industries or a strong line of services meeting a solid demand abroad. On the other hand, those like Norway, Russia, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia or Nigeria that depend heavily on exports of oil, natural gas, agricultural commodities and raw materials.

The countries with a negative balance include a mix of industrialized countries that have opted for a fashionable economic growth approach based on private and public debt to the detriment of robust industrial performance (e.g. United States, Spain, Italy, France, United Kingdom), and a number of natural resources rich countries, of which the merchandise export surplus is out-weighted by services bought from, and transfers made to foreign entities (e.g. Brazil, Angola, Kazakhstan).

At the aggregate level, the dichotomy between industrial might and rich natural resources is also obvious. East Asia builds huge surpluses through high industrial performances. Middle East and Central Europe, mostly Russia, also achieve surpluses thanks to their oil, gas, and raw materials. By contrast, North America and the European Union make a lame-duck appearance with their sizable deficits.

The analysis of the data elicits five conjectures :

• Balance surpluses may be achieved fundamentally by abundant natural resources endowments (e.g. Kuwait, Saudi Arabia), by a dynamic manufacturing industry (China, Germany) or by effective goods and services industries (e.g. Switzerland, the Netherlands).
• However, the best-performing economies are still those that attained the mastery of the industrial functions — among the top 10 surplus builders only Russia and Norway do not entirely correspond to the industrial pattern.
• Some economies (e.g. Malaysia) have successfully changed their status from producers of energy and raw materials to emerging multi sector economies.
• Having an active industry may not suffice, if this industry is owned by foreigners that quickly repatriate earnings and interests. Ireland has a sizable merchandise trade surplus — 24% of GDP in 2009 —, but services and transfers brought the current account balance down to a deficit of 3% of GDP. The same happens with Brazil : a merchandise trade surplus of 9.6% of GDP turns into a current account balance deficit of 1.5% of GDP. Definitely, the motto is : "Go for a strong national industry !".
• Current account balance deficits and huge external debt tend to go together. The 2009 figures are a premonition of the debt crisis that was to explode in 2010. Among the top 20 deficits are all the countries that are currently considered in risk of defaulting their debts : United States, Spain, Italy, Greece, Portugal and Ireland — not to mention France or the United Kingdom that do not fare much better.

Sources: World DataBank and BEA.

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