areppim chart, graph and statistics of the number of fixed telephone subscriptions in the world. Main (fixed) telephone lines worldwide are past their 2006 peak of 1,261 billion, and initiated a decline that already brought the number of subscriptions down to 1.17 billion or 7% less in 2013,  according to data from ITU (International Telecommunications Union) for the period 1960-2013. he advent of the mobile cellular phone in the early 1980s became a rampant challenge to the fixed line's supremacy. The threat would become obvious with the implementation of the digital GSM protocol for cellular phones in the 1990s. Subscriptions to mobile phones rose fast, causing fixed lines to reach saturation at 1,261 million subscriptions in 2006, after which it was the downfall at the fast pace of -1.05% per year.

Main (fixed) telephone lines worldwide are past their 2006 peak of 1,261 billion, and initiated a decline that already brought the number of subscriptions down to 1.17 billion or 7% less in 2013, according to data from ITU (International Telecommunications Union) for the period 1960-2013 (actual data : blue dots; forecast : dotted line).

The chart provides a sobering example of the risk taken by forecasters : a sudden technological breakthrough — or a social or economic brutal change for that matter — may fundamentally alter the course of events in an unforeseeable way. In this case, the data followed an exponential growth path, typical of a logistic growth function (red line), until 1995. Growth even accelerated thereafter for a while. Fixed telephony seemed to have a radiant future.

However, the advent of the mobile cellular phone in the early 1980s became a rampant challenge to the fixed line's supremacy. The threat would become obvious with the implementation of the digital GSM protocol for cellular phones in the 1990s. Subscriptions to mobile phones rose fast, causing fixed lines to reach saturation at 1,261 million subscriptions in 2006, after which it was the downfall at the fast pace of -1.05% per year.

In fact, cellular technology may totally outstrip fixed telephony, just in the same way that telefax obliterated telegraph or Internet obliterated telefax.

Currently, cellular technology is capable of meeting and even surpassing fixed line data uploading performance. But it is not yet up to the task of providing data downloading at the same performance level, thus failing to meet requirements to deliver high speed, cost-effective and user-friendly Web browsing or massive data transfers. Telephone lines still do a better job in this respect — where the infrastructure exists —, and both interested businesses and individuals will continue to rely on them to get satisfaction. However, the blow inflicted on fixed lines by mobile telephony in 2001 as the latter became the universally preferred voice communication vehicle, may well replicate in the Internet realm and reduce fixed phone technology to niche application domains.

 

Main (Fixed) Telephone Lines
Forecast

Year

Telephone lines
(million)

Actual

Forecast ¹

19609090
1961  
1962  
1963  
1964  
1965116116
1966  
1967  
1968  
1969  
1970158158
1971  
1972  
1973  
1974  
1975230230
1976244244
1977260260
1978276276
1979295295
1980312312
1981338338
1982353353
1983370370
1984387387
1985405405
1986422422
1987443443
1988467467
1989492492
1990520520
1991546546
1992572572
1993604604
1994643643
1995689689
1996738738
1997792792
1998838838
1999904904
2000975975
20011,0341,034
20021,0831,083
20031,1351,135
20041,2041,204
20051,2431,243
20061,2611,261
20071,2541,254
20081,2491,249
20091,2531,253
20101,2281,228
20111,2041,204
20121,1861,186
20131,1711,171
2014 1,153
2015 1,141
2016 1,130
2017 1,119
2018 1,108
2019 1,097
2020 1,086
2021 1,075
2022 1,064
2023 1,054
2024 1,043
2025 1,033
¹ Substitution forecast

 

Sources: ITU International Telecommunications Union

 

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