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Correlation of Innovation and GDP, 2014

X-Y scatter chart and statistics of the relationship between a nation's global innovation index and the corresponding GDP per capita. The association between the scores and the GDP per capita is strong (correlation coefficient r = 0.82 for the raw values, 0.83 for their log values). The variation of the innovation index is largely explained by the variation of the GDP per capita (determination coefficient R² = 0.67 for the raw data, and  0.70 for the log values).

The logarithmic chart shows the relationship between the GII (global innovation index, blue dots, Y-axis) and the GDP per capita (X-axis) for the reporting 143 countries. Logarithms are used instead of the raw values for the sake of clarity, better showing the scatter of the data around the line of fit (straight red line).

The association between the scores and the GDP per capita is strong (correlation coefficient r = 0.82 for the raw values, 0.83 for their log values). The variation of the innovation index is largely explained by the variation of the GDP per capita (determination coefficient R² = 0.67 for the raw data, and 0.70 for the log values). In this respect, the year 2014 is quite in line with the preceding years. The GII ranking chart, also shows how median innovation indexes are higher in countries that enjoy higher GDP. However, this does not tell the full story, as shown by the scatter of the data points around the straight line in the log chart.

The analysis of residuals (the difference between the line of fit and the score) shows both the good and the less good exceptions to the rule. A set of countries score higher on innovation than what their GDP per capita would entitle them to. In descending order the top ten are : Moldova, China, Uganda, Viet Nam, Estonia, Kenya, United Kingdom, Malawi, Mongolia and Rwanda. With the exception of China, Estonia and the United Kingdom, all these countries have GDP per capita below 50% of the median. It is thus established that comparatively poor economies may succeed in achieving relatively high innovation scores.

At the opposite end, residuals expose the poor innovation performance of countries whose GDP entitlement should justify higher scores. The ten worst performers are in descending order: Sudan, Myanmar, Brunei, Venezuela, Algeria, Kuwait, Angola, Togo, Trinidad and Tobago and Yemen. Half of these countries enjoy GDP per capita above the median.

 

Correlation of
GII (Global Innovation Index) with GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita
2014

Country GII 2014 Rank Income Level ¹ GDP per capita ²
ScoreLogarithmUSD (constant, 2005=100)Logarithm
Albania30.471.4894UM3,9163.59
Algeria24.201.38133UM3,2443.51
Angola23.821.38135UM2,7383.44
Argentina35.131.5570UM22,7004.36
Armenia36.061.5665LM2,3103.36
Australia55.011.7417HI37,4924.57
Austria53.411.7320HI41,2174.62
Azerbaijan29.601.47101UM3,2533.51
Bahrain36.261.5662HI17,5024.24
Bangladesh24.351.39129LI6212.79
Barbados40.781.6141HI14,3504.16
Belarus37.101.5758UM4,9143.69
Belgium51.691.7123HI37,6014.58
Benin24.211.38132LI5832.77
Bhutan31.831.5086LM1,9773.30
Bolivia, Plurinational State of27.761.44111LM1,3233.12
Bosnia and Herzegovina32.431.5181UM3,4043.53
Botswana30.871.4992UM7,0273.85
Brazil36.291.5661UM5,8233.77
Brunei Darussalam31.671.5088HI24,1854.38
Bulgaria40.741.6144UM4,8083.68
Burkina Faso28.181.45109LI5222.72
Burundi22.431.35138LI1552.19
Cabo Verde30.091.4897LM2,7393.44
Cambodia28.661.46106LI7092.85
Cameroon27.521.44114LM9893.00
Canada56.131.7512HI37,5294.57
Chile40.641.6146HI9,7283.99
China46.571.6729UM3,5833.55
Colombia35.501.5568UM4,3943.64
Costa Rica37.301.5757UM5,8393.77
Côte d'Ivoire27.021.43116LM1,0793.03
Croatia40.751.6142HI10,5564.02
Cyprus45.821.6630HI20,5174.31
Czech Republic50.221.7026HI14,6484.17
Denmark57.521.768HI47,2204.67
Dominican Republic32.291.5183UM4,8843.69
Ecuador27.501.44115UM3,7013.57
Egypt30.031.4899LM1,5673.19
El Salvador29.081.46103LM3,0633.49
Estonia51.541.7124HI12,0574.08
Ethiopia25.361.40126LI2952.47
Fiji30.391.4895UM3,8253.58
Finland60.671.784HI39,0904.59
France52.181.7222HI35,6684.55
Gambia29.031.46104LI4502.65
Georgia34.531.5474LM2,1603.33
Germany56.021.7513HI39,2054.59
Ghana30.261.4896LM7692.89
Greece38.951.5950HI18,2294.26
Guatemala30.751.4993LM2,3413.37
Guinea20.251.31139LI3072.49
Guyana32.481.5180LM1,3363.13
Honduras26.731.43118LM1,5773.20
Hong Kong (China)56.821.7510HI33,5344.53
Hungary44.611.6535UM11,4344.06
Iceland54.051.7319HI59,0614.77
India33.701.5376LM1,1903.08
Indonesia31.811.5087LM1,8103.26
Iran, Islamic Republic of26.141.42120UM3,1323.50
Ireland56.671.7511HI47,2574.67
Israel55.461.7415HI24,3404.39
Italy45.651.6631HI29,2124.47
Jamaica32.411.5182UM8,6003.93
Japan52.411.7221HI37,5734.57
Jordan36.211.5664UM2,8553.46
Kazakhstan32.751.5279UM5,4253.73
Kenya31.851.5085LI6322.80
Korea, Republic of55.271.7416HI23,8934.38
Kuwait35.191.5569HI31,4374.50
Kyrgyzstan27.751.44112LI6252.80
Latvia44.811.6534HI8,8663.95
Lebanon33.601.5377UM7,2413.86
Lesotho27.011.43117LM9742.99
Lithuania41.001.6139HI10,5444.02
Luxembourg56.861.759HI79,5094.90
Madagascar25.501.41124LI2712.43
Malawi27.611.44113LI2642.42
Malaysia45.601.6633UM6,9983.84
Mali26.181.42119LI4762.68
Malta50.441.7025HI16,7324.22
Mauritius40.941.6140UM6,8793.84
Mexico36.021.5666UM8,5193.93
Moldova, Republic of40.741.6143LM1,1363.06
Mongolia37.521.5756LM1,7963.25
Montenegro37.011.5759UM4,6893.67
Morocco32.241.5184LM2,5313.40
Mozambique28.521.46107LI4332.64
Myanmar19.641.29140LI4,4003.64
Namibia28.471.45108UM4,5653.66
Nepal23.791.38136LI4092.61
Netherlands60.591.785HI42,8934.63
New Zealand54.521.7418HI29,3344.47
Nicaragua25.471.41125LM1,3673.14
Niger24.271.39131LI2912.46
Nigeria27.791.44110LM1,0563.02
Norway55.591.7414HI65,2404.81
Oman33.871.5375HI13,2524.12
Pakistan24.001.38134LM7902.90
Panama38.301.5852UM7,7403.89
Paraguay31.591.5089LM1,9293.29
Peru34.731.5473UM4,1103.61
Philippines29.871.48100LM1,5813.20
Poland40.641.6145HI10,7864.03
Portugal45.631.6632HI18,2154.26
Qatar40.311.6147HI59,8944.78
Romania38.081.5855UM6,0673.78
Russian Federation39.141.5949HI6,9233.84
Rwanda29.311.47102LI4012.60
Saudi Arabia41.611.6238HI18,0604.26
Senegal30.061.4898LM7962.90
Serbia35.891.5567UM4,3043.63
Seychelles38.561.5951UM14,8754.17
Singapore59.241.777HI36,8984.57
Slovakia41.891.6237HI15,3714.19
Slovenia47.231.6728HI18,6394.27
South Africa38.251.5853UM6,0903.78
Spain49.271.6927HI25,1504.40
Sri Lanka28.981.46105LM2,0043.30
Sudan12.661.10143LM7712.89
Swaziland25.331.40127LM2,4303.39
Sweden62.291.793HI45,5514.66
Switzerland64.781.811HI59,0094.77
Tajikistan23.731.38137LI4812.68
Tanzania, United Republic of25.601.41123LI4872.69
TFYR of Macedonia36.931.5760UM3,5773.55
Thailand39.281.5948UM3,4383.54
Togo17.651.25142LI4242.63
Trinidad and Tobago31.561.5090HI14,3704.16
Tunisia32.941.5278UM3,9813.60
Turkey38.201.5854UM8,7233.94
Uganda31.141.4991LI4182.62
Ukraine36.261.5663LM2,1383.33
United Arab Emirates43.251.6436HI25,1414.40
United Kingdom62.371.792HI40,2254.60
United States of America60.091.786HI45,7104.66
Uruguay34.761.5472HI7,8093.89
Uzbekistan25.201.40128LM8992.95
Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of25.661.41122UM6,4023.81
Viet Nam34.891.5471LM1,0293.01
Yemen19.531.29141LM7422.87
Zambia25.761.41121LM1,0543.02
Zimbabwe24.311.39130LI4752.68
Median34.76   4,400 
Correlation coefficient r0.820.83    
Determination coefficient 0.670.70    
 ¹ The WB (World Bank) divides world economies by "income level", according to 2013 gross national income (GNI) per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. The groups are:
- LI: low income, $1,045 or less;
- LM: lower middle income, $1,046 - $4,125;
- UM: upper middle income, $4,126 - $12,745; and
- HI: high income, $12,746 or more.
 ² WB latest GDP available data for 2013, with the following exceptions:
- Kuwait and Oman: WB 2012 estimates.
- Argentina, Jamaica and Myanmar: CIA World Factbook, 2013 estimates.

 


 

Sources: INSEAD - WIPO, The Global Innovation Index, The World Bank.

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