X-Y scatter chart and statistics of the relationship between a nation's global innovation index and the corresponding GDP per capita. The chart shows the logarithms of the two variables revealing a strong linear association of the two variables (r = 0.87) for the 141 countries under consideration. The determination coefficient (R² = 0.75) indicates that 75% of the variation of the innovation index is explained by the variation of the GDP per capita.

The chart shows the logarithms of the two variables, GDP per capita on the X-axis, and the GII (global innovation index, represented by the blue dots) on the Y-axis, revealing a strong linear association (the regression line in red) of GII and GDP per capita for the 141 countries under consideration. The choice of the logarithm transformation is justified by the greater simplicity of the line of fit — the red straight line —, compared to the curve that the original information would produce, and by the possibility to further understand the information behind the data by looking at the residuals.

Compared to the precedent year's ranking, the correlation coefficient (r = 0.87) shows a stronger association between the two variables, confirmed by the also higher determination coefficient (R² = 0.75) indicating that 75% of the variation of the innovation index is explained by the variation of the GDP per capita. The higher coefficients are likely explained by the larger sample of countries included in the survey.

As noted in the comment to the ranking chart, high innovation indexes emerge in countries that enjoy higher GDP per capita : as the latter grows by 100 units, the innovation index climbs 18 (slope measured from the logarithms; the slope of the corresponding raw values is 0.1%). However, this does not tell the full story, otherwise the data dots would coincide exactly with the straight line, which is not the case.

The analysis of residuals — a residual being the difference between the actual innovation score and the corresponding value of the line of fit — shows some exceptions to the rule. A set of countries score higher on innovation than what their GDP per capita would entitle them to. In descending order the top ten are : Moldova, Estonia, Serbia, China, India, Malta, Mongolia, Viet Nam, Switzerland and Ukraine. Six among these countries have GDP per capita below 50% of the median (Moldova, Serbia, India, Mongolia, Viet Nam and Ukraine). It is thus established that comparatively poor economies may succeed in achieving relatively high innovation scores.

At the opposite end, residuals expose the poor innovation performance of countries whose GDP entitlement should justify higher scores. Such countries as Qatar, Uruguay, Brunei Darussalam, Greece, Argentina, Trinidad and Tobago, and Kuwait are among the 21 lowest innovation performers, although they enjoy GDP per capita that are 4 to 13 multiples of the median.

 

GII (Global Innovation Index) 2012
Correlation of innovation with GDP per capita

Country

Income Group
(World Bank)

Rank

Index 2012

GDP per capita¹

ScoreLogarithm$US thousand
(2000=100)
Logarithm
AlbaniaUM9030.43.41,9667.6
AlgeriaUM12424.43.22,2557.7
AngolaLM13522.23.11,3777.2
ArgentinaUM7034.43.511,6029.4
ArmeniaLM6934.53.51,3847.2
AustraliaHI2351.93.925,35110.1
AustriaHI2253.14.027,42810.2
AzerbaijanUM8930.43.42,3397.8
BahrainHI4141.13.711,236²9.3
BangladeshLI11226.13.35886.4
BelarusUM7832.93.52,8908.0
BelgiumHI2054.34.024,73410.1
BelizeLM8032.53.53,4948.2
BeninLI12524.43.23785.9
BoliviaLM11425.83.31,2757.2
Bosnia & HerzegovinaUM7234.23.52,2257.7
BotswanaUM8531.43.44,3508.4
BrazilUM5836.63.64,8038.5
Brunei DarussalamHI5337.73.617,225²9.8
BulgariaUM4340.73.72,6187.9
Burkina FasoLI12224.63.22865.7
BurundiLI13720.53.01414.9
CambodiaLI12923.43.25906.4
CameroonLM121253.27256.6
CanadaHI1256.94.025,93310.2
ChileUM3942.73.86,7548.8
ChinaUM3445.43.82,6357.9
ColombiaUM6535.53.63,3798.1
Costa RicaUM6036.33.65,3668.6
Côte d'IvoireLM13422.63.15496.3
CroatiaHI4240.73.76,3528.8
CyprusHI2847.93.915,3789.6
Czech RepublicHI2749.73.97,9129.0
DenmarkHI759.94.130,68710.3
Dominican RepublicUM8630.93.44,1768.3
EcuadorUM9828.53.31,7867.5
EgyptLM10327.93.31,9777.6
El SalvadorLM9329.53.42,5797.9
EstoniaHI1955.34.06,4388.8
EthiopiaLI13123.33.12325.4
FijiLM10127.93.32,2427.7
FinlandHI461.84.127,76610.2
FranceHI2451.83.923,01710.0
GabonUM10626.53.34,3348.4
GambiaLI13023.33.17196.6
GeorgiaLM7134.33.51,3357.2
GermanyHI1556.24.026,08110.2
GhanaLM9229.63.44026.0
GreeceHI6635.33.612,6539.4
GuatemalaLM9928.43.31,8867.5
GuyanaLM7733.73.51,211²7.1
HondurasLM11126.33.31,4117.3
Hong KongHI858.74.137,35210.5
HungaryHI3146.53.85,7468.7
IcelandHI1855.74.034,81210.5
IndiaLM6435.73.68386.7
IndonesiaLM10028.13.31,2077.1
IranUM10427.33.32,162³7.7
IrelandHI958.74.127,32910.2
IsraelHI17564.022,86010.0
ItalyHI3644.53.818,9359.8
JamaicaUM9130.23.43,6648.2
JapanHI2551.73.939,57810.6
JordanUM5637.13.62,5897.9
KazakhstanUM8331.93.52,6307.9
KenyaLI9628.93.44776.2
Korea, Rep.HI2153.94.016,6849.7
KuwaitHI5537.23.624,28610.1
KyrgyzstanLI10926.43.33956.0
LaoLM13820.23.05926.4
LatviaUM30473.95,3318.6
LebanonUM6136.23.66,8968.8
LesothoLM11625.73.25196.3
LithuaniaUM38443.85,7938.7
LuxembourgHI1157.74.152,08610.9
Macedonia, FYRUM6236.23.62,2847.7
MadagascarLI12624.23.22385.5
MalawiLI12025.43.21875.2
MalaysiaUM3245.93.85,3658.6
MaliLI11925.43.22725.6
MaltaHI1656.14.011,2149.3
MauritiusUM4939.23.75,3728.6
MexicoUM7932.93.56,2708.7
MoldovaLM5039.23.76356.5
MongoliaLM68353.68926.8
MontenegroUM4540.13.72,2787.7
MoroccoLM8830.73.41,9087.6
MozambiqueLI11026.33.34026.0
NamibiaUM7334.13.52,7497.9
NepalLI113263.32755.6
NetherlandsHI660.54.126,73510.2
New ZealandHI1356.64.014,880²9.6
NicaraguaLM10526.73.39366.8
NigerLI14018.62.91775.2
NigeriaLM12324.63.25626.3
NorwayHI1456.44.040,03510.6
OmanHI4739.53.711,7019.4
PakistanLM13323.13.16726.5
PanamaUM8730.93.46,6548.8
ParaguayLM8431.63.51,6577.4
PeruUM7534.13.53,3648.1
PhilippinesLM95293.41,4117.3
PolandHI4440.43.76,8548.8
PortugalHI3545.33.811,5599.4
QatarHI3345.53.836,15310.5
RomaniaUM5237.83.62,6337.9
RussiaUM5137.93.63,0528.0
RwandaLI10227.93.33565.9
Saudi ArabiaHI4839.33.79,9149.2
SenegalLM9728.83.45616.3
SerbiaUM46403.71,2217.1
SingaporeHI363.54.233,53010.4
SlovakiaHI4041.43.78,6949.1
SloveniaHI2649.93.912,6899.4
South AfricaUM5437.43.63,8258.2
SpainHI2947.23.915,5129.6
Sri LankaLM9429.13.41,4027.2
SudanLM14116.82.84866.2
SwazilandLM82323.51,8147.5
SwedenHI264.84.233,51310.4
SwitzerlandHI168.24.238,06010.5
SyriaLM13223.13.11,526²7.3
TajikistanLI10826.43.32955.7
TanzaniaLI12823.93.24736.2
ThailandUM5736.93.62,6987.9
TogoLI13620.53.02695.6
Trinidad &TobagoHI8132.53.510,3299.2
TunisiaUM5936.53.63,0518.0
TurkeyUM7434.13.55,7418.7
UgandaLI11725.63.23936.0
UkraineLM6336.13.61,0947.0
United Arab EmiratesHI3744.43.821,05810.0
United KingdomHI561.24.128,03310.2
United StatesHI1057.74.137,69110.5
UruguayUM6735.13.69,5819.2
UzbekistanLM12723.93.29936.9
VenezuelaUM11825.43.25,6728.6
Viet NamLM7633.93.57576.6
YemenLM13919.23.05286.3
ZambiaLM10726.43.34396.1
ZimbabweLI11525.73.23465.8
Correlation coefficient r  0.87   
Determination coefficient   0.75   
Slope  0.18   
 ¹ Latest available World Bank data for 2011.
 ² Latest available World Bank data for 2010.
 ³ Latest available World Bank data for 2009.

 

Sources: INSEAD - WIPO for the innovation index, and World DataBank The World Bank for GDP per capita.

 

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