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Troubled US budget prospects

Federal budget deficits have been feeding government debt since the early 1980s. While GDP steadily grows from 1929 through 2013 at the average annual rate of 3.27% (doubling time 21.5 years), budget surpluses and deficits jump up and down, with increasingly deeper troughs, adding to a fast swelling government debt (average annual growth rate 5.55%, doubling time 12.8 years). Extending the analysis through 2019 by using the US budget estimates, GDP grows a bit faster, 3.41%, and the debt a bit slower, 5.53%. The gap between debt and GDP widens unflinchingly, self-feeding itself through further budget imbalances.

In the post-WWII era, the high-deficit trend was launched by Nixon, who also devised a canny subterfuge to...

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Chart and statistics of US gross domestic product (gdp), government debt, and budget surplus or deficit as indexes for 1929=100, after deflating with the gdp deflator, from 1929 to 2013, and government estimates through 2019. Federal budget deficits have been feeding government debt year after year since the early 1980s. GDP steadily grows from 1929 through 2013 at the average annual rate of 3.27% (doubling time 21.5 years), budget surpluses and deficits jump up and down, with increasingly deeper troughs, adding to a fast swelling government debt (average annual growth rate 5.55%, doubling time 12.8 years) — extending through 2019 by using the US budget estimates, GDP grows a bit faster, 3.44%, and the debt a bit slower, 5.53%. The gap between debt and GDP widens unflinchingly, self-feeding itself through further budget imbalances. Deficits will likely remain the rule, and debt will continue to pile up. There are however some good news for the US government. A little more than 37% of the government debt is external debt, of which 82% is labeled in USD. Between 2003 and 2013 the USD lost 28% of its value. At this rate, the 2013 government outstanding debt would shrink by 8.4% in ten years. This is hardly a solution, because the same outstanding debt has increased by 439% between 2003 and 2013. It is also to be feared that US creditors, dissatisfied with the dollar decline, will repudiate the US currency as the dominant international payment currency, thus aggravating the US fiscal conundrum.

 

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